Marquette MI Forecast Accuracy

Comparing National Weather Service (NWS) & Weather Underground (WU) forecasted temperatures with recorded (Rec) temperatures

Goal:
+/- 3°F
Forecast Day+1 Day+2 Day+3 Day
HighLowHighLowHighLowHighLow
DateNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWU
05/22/20186872.4654649717150567579646180795458
05/21/20187169.2704652.5466572.46646496968475272785358
05/20/20185757.5594047.2446769.2714552.5496872.468454968684652
05/19/20185762.8593837.7365857.5603947.2446469.2694452.5466972.4704548
05/18/20186776.0694852.2466762.8653937.7375857.5564147.2426369.2624452.544
05/17/20184847.4463837.9397076.0704552.2466362.8684037.7375857.5594247.244
05/16/20187086.8754137.7385247.4514237.9426776.0724952.2486362.8674037.738
05/15/20184947.1484739.2457286.8734237.7395647.4514237.9426676.0734852.249
05/14/20186973.8714542.1435147.1484239.2446886.8714337.7405947.4564137.943
05/13/20187166.1735051.9527073.8674242.1455847.1604539.2476586.8654137.741
05/12/20185454.3543943.8406666.1695051.9516973.8664542.1475947.1574239.246
05/11/20184846.5473331.6325254.3533743.8396666.1674851.9507173.8665042.149
05/10/20184648.9453029.4294646.5473231.6325354.3533843.8376466.1654551.949
05/09/20185953.8554040.6374648.9443029.4304546.5463331.6325154.3533543.837
05/08/20186464.7624344.0436053.8604140.6394648.9453229.4314746.5473531.635
05/07/20187777.9745058.4516364.7564444.0446253.8624240.6404748.9453429.433
05/06/20184954.1513637.3376777.9724858.4506464.7634444.0466153.8624340.645
05/05/20185657.4593840.8374954.1503437.3366577.9714658.4476364.7614344.045
05/04/20186368.9674352.2435757.4553640.8374954.1473437.3346877.9704458.446
05/03/20185556.4594443.6436568.9684252.2425857.4573640.8365154.1493637.336
05/02/20184942.0453835.0375556.4604243.6436268.9663952.2405157.4533640.836
05/01/20187483.0774737.3405042.0473835.0375956.4624243.6435968.9633752.238
04/30/20186778.4725555.3527883.0764637.3445442.0513835.0385456.4573943.641
04/29/20185960.0614139.5407078.4705355.3527483.0734537.3485542.0563935.039
04/28/20183537.1352725.6225660.0593939.5406578.4675055.3516883.0714637.345
04/27/20183637.2363030.5283537.1372625.6235660.0593839.5406278.4694855.351
04/26/20186064.9593032.2303937.2362830.5283837.1372725.6235460.0573839.540
04/25/20184242.0412933.8325464.9573032.2284237.2413030.5294337.1412925.627
04/24/20184749.7493133.4314142.0423033.8326064.9583032.2304437.2443030.532
04/23/20186167.4623744.2384649.7443133.4314242.0423033.8295264.9573232.231
ErrorsNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWUNWSRecWU
Net-2.6-2-1.1-1.9-2.4-2.3-1.8-1.4-2.1-1.4-1.5-1.3-2.9-1.8-1.5-0.6
MAE4.23.33.42.94.44.33.83.25.75.14.44.17.16.154.4
RMS5.64.24.53.75.65.44.947.46.55.45.297.76.35.6
Goal %53.36062.158.641.444.857.157.139.339.344.448.129.629.630.834.6

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

(data begins: 2017-06-08)
(minimum: start + 4 days)

NOTES:

  1. Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
  2. Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
  3. MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
  4. In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
  5. Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
  6. Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
  7. Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.