Marquette MI Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with recorded (Rec) temperatures

Goal:
+/- 3°F
Forecast Day+1 Day+2 Day+3 Day
HighLowHighLowHighLowHighLow
DateNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWU
07/17/201865 52 76 59 86 62 73 58 
07/16/20187984.8 5458.4 67 51 78 59 84 61 
07/15/20188691.1 6367.9 8184.8 5358.4 71 52 82 57 
07/14/20188185.9 6669.7 8591.1 6367.9 7684.8 5458.4 68 53 
07/13/20188282.8 6467.3 8285.9 6269.7 8691.1 6367.9 7784.8 5558.4 
07/12/20188078.1 6769.4 8182.8 6267.3 8285.9 6369.7 8491.1 6367.9 
07/11/20188277.3 6461.0 8178.1 6669.4 8182.8 6067.3 8385.9 6569.7 
07/10/20187273.2 5558.0 7677.3 6261.0 7978.1 6469.4 8182.8 6167.3 
07/09/20188080.7 5360.9 7373.2 5558.0 7877.3 6361.0 8078.1 6369.4 
07/08/20189090.9 6973.0 7880.7 5660.9 7673.2 5658.0 8077.3 6461.0 
07/07/20188385.7 6566.9 8690.9 6673.0 7880.7 5660.9 7573.2 5558.0 
07/06/20187574.9 5562.7 8385.7 6266.9 8690.9 6473.0 7680.7 5660.9 
07/05/20187783.8 5154.6 7174.9 5462.7 8085.7 6366.9 8490.9 6473.0 
07/04/20188592.5 6671.4 7783.8 5354.6 7274.9 5462.7 7885.7 6266.9 
07/03/20188691.6 6365.2 8692.5 6671.4 7683.8 5454.6 7074.9 5262.7 
07/02/20188286.0 6465.3 8591.6 6365.2 8492.5 6671.4 7883.8 5654.6 
07/01/20187883.9 5659.9 8186.0 6365.3 8791.6 6465.2 8292.5 6771.4 
06/30/20189086.6 6767.0 8083.9 5859.9 8186.0 6265.3 8291.6 6365.2 
06/29/20188390.9 6866.9 9086.6 6467.0 7783.9 5959.9 8086.0 6065.3 
06/28/20187980.9 6369.5 8590.9 7166.9 8886.6 6367.0 7483.9 5759.9 
06/27/20187073.2 5661.6 7780.9 5969.5 8390.9 7166.9 8586.6 6367.0 
06/26/20187175.5725457.5536973.2695661.6607780.9776069.5598190.9886766.971
06/25/20186765.6635157.3527075.5735357.5526873.2695661.6587780.9766069.560
06/24/20185859.0544543.9436565.6615157.3526575.5675557.5536673.2635461.656
06/23/20187067.6684947.0466059.0544643.9456765.6685357.3546775.5635757.557
06/22/20187170.0695050.8516967.6674947.0496059.0574543.9477065.6735657.355
06/21/20186662.2594947.2496970.0675050.8516967.6695047.0496359.0594843.947
06/20/20186670.3684749.9486562.2635047.2527070.0705250.8536867.6705047.049
06/19/20186165.0645153.5536770.3694849.9486662.2665047.2517170.0725350.854
06/18/20186671.6685052.9506665.0655053.5536970.3664849.9477162.2685147.252
06/17/20188480.6875655.3596571.6674952.9526865.0684953.5537370.3725249.952
ErrorsNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWUNWSActWU
Net-2.1-1.5-2.7-1.1-2.7-2.5-3.3-0.8-2.9-1.2-3.1-1.4-3.3-1.1-2.80.1
MAE3.52.93.32.33.62.74.22.44.13.44.13.65.35.04.33.7
RMS4.13.43.92.84.13.24.83.14.944.84.46.26.354.4
Goal %40.050.053.370.041.460.041.470.046.450.039.340.033.350.040.740.0

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

(data begins: 2017-06-08)
(minimum: start + 4 days)

NOTES:

  1. Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/26/18
  2. Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
  3. Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
  4. MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
  5. In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
  6. Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
  7. Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
  8. Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.