Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
05/18/2024 | 81 | 85.7 | 53 | 71 | 51 | 66 | 49 | 62 | 48 | |||||||
05/17/2024 | 66 | 60.6 | 51 | 54.5 | 83 | 85.7 | 53 | 71 | 53 | 70 | 51 | |||||
05/16/2024 | 61 | 58.9 | 48 | 45.5 | 63 | 60.6 | 48 | 54.5 | 80 | 85.7 | 52 | 69 | 51 | |||
05/15/2024 | 55 | 52.9 | 39 | 39.6 | 61 | 58.9 | 46 | 45.5 | 60 | 60.6 | 46 | 54.5 | 69 | 85.7 | 52 | |
05/14/2024 | 50 | 47.7 | 38 | 36.6 | 55 | 52.9 | 41 | 39.6 | 60 | 58.9 | 47 | 45.5 | 62 | 60.6 | 47 | 54.5 |
05/13/2024 | 51 | 49.4 | 37 | 40.4 | 48 | 47.7 | 39 | 36.6 | 53 | 52.9 | 42 | 39.6 | 57 | 58.9 | 44 | 45.5 |
05/12/2024 | 70 | 81.0 | 43 | 44.8 | 53 | 49.4 | 39 | 40.4 | 49 | 47.7 | 39 | 36.6 | 54 | 52.9 | 42 | 39.6 |
05/11/2024 | 54 | 58.9 | 42 | 47.0 | 68 | 81.0 | 43 | 44.8 | 51 | 49.4 | 38 | 40.4 | 49 | 47.7 | 37 | 36.6 |
05/10/2024 | 56 | 54.1 | 41 | 42.2 | 52 | 58.9 | 42 | 47.0 | 67 | 81.0 | 43 | 44.8 | 50 | 49.4 | 38 | 40.4 |
05/09/2024 | 48 | 50.5 | 39 | 40.0 | 56 | 54.1 | 41 | 42.2 | 55 | 58.9 | 42 | 47.0 | 65 | 81.0 | 46 | 44.8 |
05/08/2024 | 50 | 55.8 | 38 | 39.8 | 49 | 50.5 | 38 | 40.0 | 58 | 54.1 | 41 | 42.2 | 53 | 58.9 | 41 | 47.0 |
05/07/2024 | 64 | 69.6 | 43 | 42.9 | 49 | 55.8 | 39 | 39.8 | 49 | 50.5 | 40 | 40.0 | 57 | 54.1 | 43 | 42.2 |
05/06/2024 | 63 | 57.0 | 44 | 47.6 | 64 | 69.6 | 45 | 42.9 | 52 | 55.8 | 41 | 39.8 | 49 | 50.5 | 40 | 40.0 |
05/05/2024 | 56 | 56.9 | 40 | 43.2 | 62 | 57.0 | 46 | 47.6 | 62 | 69.6 | 45 | 42.9 | 54 | 55.8 | 41 | 39.8 |
05/04/2024 | 63 | 72.6 | 42 | 44.4 | 56 | 56.9 | 40 | 43.2 | 62 | 57.0 | 46 | 47.6 | 61 | 69.6 | 46 | 42.9 |
05/03/2024 | 66 | 74.4 | 46 | 48.4 | 64 | 72.6 | 43 | 44.4 | 57 | 56.9 | 41 | 43.2 | 64 | 57.0 | 46 | 47.6 |
05/02/2024 | 51 | 45.9 | 42 | 40.1 | 68 | 74.4 | 45 | 48.4 | 62 | 72.6 | 42 | 44.4 | 57 | 56.9 | 40 | 43.2 |
05/01/2024 | 55 | 58.3 | 39 | 39.4 | 49 | 45.9 | 42 | 40.1 | 69 | 74.4 | 44 | 48.4 | 60 | 72.6 | 41 | 44.4 |
04/30/2024 | 52 | 50.1 | 39 | 39.5 | 59 | 58.3 | 40 | 39.4 | 52 | 45.9 | 43 | 40.1 | 63 | 74.4 | 44 | 48.4 |
04/29/2024 | 44 | 47.3 | 41 | 42.8 | 54 | 50.1 | 42 | 39.5 | 63 | 58.3 | 42 | 39.4 | 55 | 45.9 | 44 | 40.1 |
04/28/2024 | 40 | 39.2 | 39 | 36.8 | 52 | 47.3 | 44 | 42.8 | 57 | 50.1 | 43 | 39.5 | 66 | 58.3 | 46 | 39.4 |
04/27/2024 | 67 | 72.2 | 37 | 37.1 | 40 | 39.2 | 39 | 36.8 | 52 | 47.3 | 44 | 42.8 | 60 | 50.1 | 45 | 39.5 |
04/26/2024 | 57 | 60.0 | 48 | 46.5 | 67 | 72.2 | 37 | 37.1 | 40 | 39.2 | 40 | 36.8 | 63 | 47.3 | 44 | 42.8 |
04/25/2024 | 55 | 51.6 | 32 | 38.6 | 55 | 60.0 | 46 | 46.5 | 66 | 72.2 | 40 | 37.1 | 46 | 39.2 | 40 | 36.8 |
04/24/2024 | 35 | 35.0 | 21 | 25.5 | 53 | 51.6 | 35 | 38.6 | 56 | 60.0 | 46 | 46.5 | 66 | 72.2 | 39 | 37.1 |
04/23/2024 | 56 | 60.4 | 23 | 28.6 | 37 | 35.0 | 26 | 25.5 | 56 | 51.6 | 36 | 38.6 | 57 | 60.0 | 48 | 46.5 |
04/22/2024 | 65 | 69.3 | 44 | 47.3 | 52 | 60.4 | 26 | 28.6 | 38 | 35.0 | 28 | 25.5 | 55 | 51.6 | 37 | 38.6 |
04/21/2024 | 45 | 47.9 | 31 | 35.7 | 63 | 69.3 | 42 | 47.3 | 48 | 60.4 | 27 | 28.6 | 37 | 35.0 | 29 | 25.5 |
04/20/2024 | 42 | 44.3 | 35 | 34.8 | 47 | 47.9 | 29 | 35.7 | 59 | 69.3 | 42 | 47.3 | 48 | 60.4 | 28 | 28.6 |
04/19/2024 | 42 | 43.3 | 32 | 32.6 | 43 | 44.3 | 35 | 34.8 | 47 | 47.9 | 29 | 35.7 | 53 | 69.3 | 35 | 47.3 |
Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
Net | -1.7 | -1.7 | -1.6 | -1.1 | -1.5 | -0.7 | -1.7 | -0.3 | ||||||||
MAE | 3.9 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 6.8 | 3.1 | ||||||||
RMS | 4.6 | 2.9 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 8.6 | 4.1 | ||||||||
Goal % | 46.7 | 65.5 | 48.3 | 75.0 | 35.7 | 74.1 | 40.7 | 53.8 |
Updated every day at 9:03AM ET
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
- Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18
(Auto night: 10:45 PM - 4:46 AM)