Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
03/07/2021 | 41 | 38.4 | 30 | 45 | 28 | 44 | 42 | 46 | 33 | |||||||
03/06/2021 | 28 | 27.0 | 10 | 12.2 | 40 | 38.4 | 36 | 47 | 30 | 51 | 41 | |||||
03/05/2021 | 31 | 33.0 | 17 | 23.3 | 27 | 27.0 | 12 | 12.2 | 37 | 38.4 | 31 | 46 | 30 | |||
03/04/2021 | 24 | 26.9 | 16 | 18.5 | 30 | 33.0 | 16 | 23.3 | 32 | 27.0 | 17 | 12.2 | 40 | 38.4 | 33 | |
03/03/2021 | 29 | 33.6 | 19 | 21.4 | 26 | 26.9 | 17 | 18.5 | 32 | 33.0 | 20 | 23.3 | 32 | 27.0 | 20 | 12.2 |
03/02/2021 | 40 | 45.5 | 25 | 29.9 | 30 | 33.6 | 19 | 21.4 | 28 | 26.9 | 19 | 18.5 | 32 | 33.0 | 23 | 23.3 |
03/01/2021 | 14 | 16.3 | 8 | 9.5 | 39 | 45.5 | 26 | 29.9 | 30 | 33.6 | 18 | 21.4 | 28 | 26.9 | 18 | 18.5 |
02/28/2021 | 32 | 32.4 | 10 | 10.7 | 16 | 16.3 | 7 | 9.5 | 37 | 45.5 | 28 | 29.9 | 37 | 33.6 | 22 | 21.4 |
02/27/2021 | 38 | 42.6 | 25 | 27.8 | 31 | 32.4 | 13 | 10.7 | 17 | 16.3 | 7 | 9.5 | 38 | 45.5 | 28 | 29.9 |
02/26/2021 | 39 | 44.2 | 30 | 28.9 | 38 | 42.6 | 26 | 27.8 | 33 | 32.4 | 14 | 10.7 | 19 | 16.3 | 11 | 9.5 |
02/25/2021 | 32 | 31.0 | 20 | 19.9 | 39 | 44.2 | 29 | 28.9 | 38 | 42.6 | 23 | 27.8 | 29 | 32.4 | 12 | 10.7 |
02/24/2021 | 31 | 31.4 | 15 | 13.5 | 26 | 31.0 | 24 | 19.9 | 36 | 44.2 | 30 | 28.9 | 38 | 42.6 | 20 | 27.8 |
02/23/2021 | 39 | 42.4 | 27 | 29.8 | 29 | 31.4 | 21 | 13.5 | 27 | 31.0 | 15 | 19.9 | 37 | 44.2 | 25 | 28.9 |
02/22/2021 | 37 | 40.9 | 30 | 36.6 | 38 | 42.4 | 25 | 29.8 | 29 | 31.4 | 13 | 13.5 | 25 | 31.0 | 14 | 19.9 |
02/21/2021 | 33 | 35.4 | 25 | 24.3 | 38 | 40.9 | 33 | 36.6 | 39 | 42.4 | 24 | 29.8 | 29 | 31.4 | 13 | 13.5 |
02/20/2021 | 25 | 24.6 | 12 | 13.5 | 31 | 35.4 | 21 | 24.3 | 37 | 40.9 | 32 | 36.6 | 39 | 42.4 | 23 | 29.8 |
02/19/2021 | 23 | 22.4 | 8 | 9.1 | 25 | 24.6 | 9 | 13.5 | 30 | 35.4 | 20 | 24.3 | 36 | 40.9 | 30 | 36.6 |
02/18/2021 | 24 | 22.9 | 14 | 14.2 | 22 | 22.4 | 7 | 9.1 | 23 | 24.6 | 8 | 13.5 | 29 | 35.4 | 18 | 24.3 |
02/17/2021 | 20 | 21.9 | 8 | 9.9 | 24 | 22.9 | 12 | 14.2 | 22 | 22.4 | 9 | 9.1 | 26 | 24.6 | 12 | 13.5 |
02/16/2021 | 15 | 16.4 | 2 | 3.0 | 21 | 21.9 | 10 | 9.9 | 24 | 22.9 | 14 | 14.2 | 24 | 22.4 | 10 | 9.1 |
02/15/2021 | 6 | 6.3 | 0 | 1.5 | 17 | 16.4 | -1 | 3.0 | 22 | 21.9 | 9 | 9.9 | 24 | 22.9 | 12 | 14.2 |
02/14/2021 | 3 | 3.8 | -7 | -8.4 | 6 | 6.3 | -4 | 1.5 | 16 | 16.4 | 1 | 3.0 | 21 | 21.9 | 10 | 9.9 |
02/13/2021 | 10 | 9.4 | -4 | -4.6 | 3 | 3.8 | -7 | -8.4 | 8 | 6.3 | -3 | 1.5 | 15 | 16.4 | 2 | 3.0 |
02/12/2021 | 13 | 12.4 | 2 | 0.9 | 11 | 9.4 | -2 | -4.6 | 5 | 3.8 | -6 | -8.4 | 10 | 6.3 | -2 | 1.5 |
02/11/2021 | 12 | 13.6 | 4 | 5.8 | 12 | 12.4 | 0 | 0.9 | 12 | 9.4 | -4 | -4.6 | 6 | 3.8 | -4 | -8.4 |
02/10/2021 | 7 | 11.2 | -1 | -1.6 | 12 | 13.6 | 4 | 5.8 | 13 | 12.4 | 0 | 0.9 | 11 | 9.4 | 3 | -4.6 |
02/09/2021 | 9 | 9.8 | -5 | -2.8 | 11 | 11.2 | -1 | -1.6 | 12 | 13.6 | 2 | 5.8 | 10 | 12.4 | 0 | 0.9 |
02/08/2021 | 9 | 7.4 | -9 | -6.4 | 9 | 9.8 | -3 | -2.8 | 11 | 11.2 | 0 | -1.6 | 11 | 13.6 | 2 | 5.8 |
02/07/2021 | 6 | 6.2 | -6 | -5.6 | 9 | 7.4 | -4 | -6.4 | 9 | 9.8 | -4 | -2.8 | 9 | 11.2 | 0 | -1.6 |
02/06/2021 | 11 | 10.5 | -3 | -7.7 | 6 | 6.2 | -5 | -5.6 | 9 | 7.4 | -5 | -6.4 | 5 | 9.8 | -4 | -2.8 |
02/05/2021 | 20 | 18.6 | 7 | 3.3 | 12 | 10.5 | -4 | -7.7 | 7 | 6.2 | -6 | -5.6 | 8 | 7.4 | -9 | -6.4 |
Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
Net | -1.2 | -1.0 | -1.4 | -0.9 | -1.2 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -1.2 | ||||||||
MAE | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||||||||
RMS | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 4 | ||||||||
Goal % | 77.4 | 83.3 | 76.7 | 62.1 | 69.0 | 57.1 | 57.1 | 59.3 |
Updated every day at 9:03AM ET
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
- Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18