Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
09/27/2022	46	45.8	42		49		41		62		48		65		50
09/26/2022	52	51.1	44	42.9	45	45.8	42		50		40		62		47
09/25/2022	56	60.7	50	50.2	52	51.1	44	42.9	46	45.8	42		50		40
09/24/2022	55	53.9	49	48.8	56	60.7	49	50.2	52	51.1	43	42.9	47	45.8	39
09/23/2022	62	65.6	51	52.2	57	53.9	52	48.8	58	60.7	50	50.2	53	51.1	46	42.9
09/22/2022	51	53.8	38	38.8	62	65.6	50	52.2	58	53.9	51	48.8	60	60.7	50	50.2
09/21/2022	64	69.2	44	46.7	52	53.8	38	38.8	62	65.6	50	52.2	60	53.9	52	48.8
09/20/2022	80	84.4	56	61.8	62	69.2	45	46.7	52	53.8	39	38.8	61	65.6	49	52.2
09/19/2022	74	75.6	58	60.1	81	84.4	58	61.8	63	69.2	46	46.7	52	53.8	41	38.8
09/18/2022	76	75.1	58	58.9	74	75.6	58	60.1	79	84.4	56	61.8	61	69.2	47	46.7
09/17/2022	80	83.3	63	61.3	77	75.1	59	58.9	74	75.6	58	60.1	76	84.4	59	61.8
09/16/2022	70	71.5	63	65.1	79	83.3	62	61.3	74	75.1	59	58.9	71	75.6	58	60.1
09/15/2022	72	74.1	60	61.4	72	71.5	63	65.1	79	83.3	61	61.3	74	75.1	59	58.9
09/14/2022	59	58.6	47	45.5	70	74.1	59	61.4	68	71.5	61	65.1	75	83.3	62	61.3
09/13/2022	71	72.1	51	54.4	60	58.6	48	45.5	68	74.1	60	61.4	72	71.5	63	65.1
09/12/2022	64	64.7	53	49.3	74	72.1	53	54.4	61	58.6	50	45.5	67	74.1	57	61.4
09/11/2022	63	61.8	54	57.5	66	64.7	54	49.3	73	72.1	53	54.4	60	58.6	49	45.5
09/10/2022	62	60.1	55	54.1	65	61.8	56	57.5	66	64.7	55	49.3	71	72.1	54	54.4
09/09/2022	81	85.0	56	57.4	62	60.1	55	54.1	64	61.8	55	57.5	66	64.7	54	49.3
09/08/2022	84	85.3	68	67.7	80	85.0	57	57.4	66	60.1	56	54.1	66	61.8	55	57.5
09/07/2022	72	72.9	52	58.3	85	85.3	66	67.7	79	85.0	58	57.4	68	60.1	55	54.1
09/06/2022	73	70.7	52	58.1	73	72.9	55	58.3	81	85.3	66	67.7	80	85.0	59	57.4
09/05/2022	68	66.9	50	49.4	75	70.7	59	58.1	76	72.9	57	58.3	83	85.3	65	67.7
09/04/2022	60	61.7	46	46.6	71	66.9	52	49.4	77	70.7	60	58.1	79	72.9	61	58.3
09/03/2022	60	60.1	51	48.4	60	61.7	49	46.6	71	66.9	54	49.4	76	70.7	59	58.1
09/02/2022	88	90.2	54	57.2	59	60.1	52	48.4	63	61.7	52	46.6	73	66.9	56	49.4
09/01/2022	85	87.8	67	66.1	88	90.2	56	57.2	61	60.1	53	48.4	65	61.7	53	46.6
08/31/2022	68	71.5	56	57.3	88	87.8	66	66.1	86	90.2	56	57.2	62	60.1	52	48.4
08/30/2022	71	74.6	60	61.6	68	71.5	58	57.3	82	87.8	66	66.1	84	90.2	56	57.2
08/29/2022	82	85.0	62	64.5	73	74.6	56	61.6	66	71.5	51	57.3	75	87.8	59	66.1
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.5		-1.2		-0.8		-0.3		-1.0		0.0		-0.9		0.5
MAE	2.1		2.1		2.5		2.0		3.4		2.3		4.4		2.7
RMS	2.5		2.7		3.0		2.4		3.9		3.1		5.4		3.3
Goal %	73.3		75.9		58.6		78.6		42.9		70.4		40.7		61.5

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18

(Auto night: 8:40 PM - 6:39 AM)