Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
06/24/2021	81		55		68		55		70		55		72		56
06/23/2021	80	82.4	64	65.4	79		59		68		55		70		56
06/22/2021	63	61.0	50	54.6	78	82.4	64	65.4	78		59		69		56
06/21/2021	56	59.9	44	48.2	63	61.0	50	54.6	80	82.4	64	65.4	80		58
06/20/2021	70	70.9	45	45.1	55	59.9	44	48.2	65	61.0	52	54.6	76	82.4	62	65.4
06/19/2021	61	59.8	49	48.2	69	70.9	49	45.1	58	59.9	46	48.2	64	61.0	51	54.6
06/18/2021	82	83.9	52	54.2	63	59.8	51	48.2	73	70.9	52	45.1	60	59.9	46	48.2
06/17/2021	83	90.5	62	68.3	78	83.9	54	54.2	67	59.8	52	48.2	72	70.9	53	45.1
06/16/2021	73	70.5	58	55.2	81	90.5	62	68.3	80	83.9	53	54.2	66	59.8	52	48.2
06/15/2021	65	66.0	46	46.6	70	70.5	56	55.2	83	90.5	61	68.3	78	83.9	53	54.2
06/14/2021	70	71.8	50	56.0	65	66.0	48	46.6	69	70.5	54	55.2	80	90.5	60	68.3
06/13/2021	74	74.3	54	55.7	68	71.8	51	56.0	64	66.0	48	46.6	69	70.5	53	55.2
06/12/2021	74	68.8	58	57.1	75	74.3	55	55.7	71	71.8	51	56.0	66	66.0	49	46.6
06/11/2021	65	64.7	55	58.0	74	68.8	57	57.1	75	74.3	56	55.7	71	71.8	50	56.0
06/10/2021	87	86.1	56	53.6	72	64.7	59	58.0	78	68.8	58	57.1	79	74.3	56	55.7
06/09/2021	78	71.0	62	62.7	89	86.1	58	53.6	71	64.7	56	58.0	73	68.8	55	57.1
06/08/2021	78	86.7	59	55.1	73	71.0	61	62.7	82	86.1	58	53.6	74	64.7	57	58.0
06/07/2021	78	83.5	60	63.7	76	86.7	56	55.1	70	71.0	58	62.7	77	86.1	58	53.6
06/06/2021	90	95.2	71	74.9	75	83.5	62	63.7	77	86.7	56	55.1	67	71.0	56	62.7
06/05/2021	77	89.6	58	58.7	83	95.2	67	74.9	78	83.5	62	63.7	78	86.7	55	55.1
06/04/2021	83	91.5	70	61.3	78	89.6	62	58.7	89	95.2	64	74.9	76	83.5	61	63.7
06/03/2021	76	80.1	53	56.2	71	91.5	64	61.3	87	89.6	64	58.7	90	95.2	67	74.9
06/02/2021	72	70.6	55	60.4	78	80.1	54	56.2	83	91.5	66	61.3	92	89.6	66	58.7
06/01/2021	65	66.7	51	56.5	71	70.6	55	60.4	78	80.1	58	56.2	84	91.5	65	61.3
05/31/2021	63	68.3	47	46.8	68	66.7	51	56.5	73	70.6	55	60.4	74	80.1	59	56.2
05/30/2021	65	69.7	48	46.5	62	68.3	47	46.8	68	66.7	51	56.5	73	70.6	54	60.4
05/29/2021	56	56.8	42	40.8	67	69.7	48	46.5	65	68.3	48	46.8	64	66.7	52	56.5
05/28/2021	47	50.4	35	34.5	56	56.8	43	40.8	63	69.7	48	46.5	65	68.3	48	46.8
05/27/2021	36	41.9	36	34.3	48	50.4	38	34.5	56	56.8	43	40.8	64	69.7	49	46.5
05/26/2021	56	62.8	38	35.0	43	41.9	37	34.3	47	50.4	37	34.5	55	56.8	45	40.8
05/25/2021	75	85.7	49	56.8	57	62.8	39	35.0	44	41.9	39	34.3	47	50.4	38	34.5
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-2.8		-1.1		-3.1		-0.4		-1.4		-0.3		-2.1		-0.5
MAE	4.1		3.0		4.9		2.8		3.9		3.3		4.6		3.8
RMS	5.2		3.7		6.6		3.5		4.7		4.1		5.4		4.5
Goal %	46.7		60.0		48.3		58.6		50.0		57.1		37.0		44.4

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18