Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
11/29/2023 | 38 | 28 | 37 | 24 | 34 | 22 | 35 | 28 | ||||||||
11/28/2023 | 23 | 23.9 | 20 | 18.8 | 37 | 28 | 36 | 24 | 33 | 21 | ||||||
11/27/2023 | 24 | 21.1 | 18 | 16.1 | 23 | 23.9 | 20 | 18.8 | 37 | 28 | 38 | 25 | ||||
11/26/2023 | 33 | 29.6 | 23 | 18.2 | 24 | 21.1 | 21 | 16.1 | 25 | 23.9 | 20 | 18.8 | 36 | 28 | ||
11/25/2023 | 37 | 36.1 | 26 | 25.4 | 31 | 29.6 | 23 | 18.2 | 26 | 21.1 | 18 | 16.1 | 25 | 23.9 | 18 | 18.8 |
11/24/2023 | 31 | 31.8 | 22 | 23.8 | 36 | 36.1 | 25 | 25.4 | 33 | 29.6 | 23 | 18.2 | 28 | 21.1 | 19 | 16.1 |
11/23/2023 | 32 | 32.9 | 19 | 18.3 | 31 | 31.8 | 24 | 23.8 | 37 | 36.1 | 25 | 25.4 | 34 | 29.6 | 21 | 18.2 |
11/22/2023 | 41 | 42.6 | 26 | 27.6 | 31 | 32.9 | 20 | 18.3 | 31 | 31.8 | 23 | 23.8 | 37 | 36.1 | 26 | 25.4 |
11/21/2023 | 41 | 40.3 | 31 | 29.9 | 41 | 42.6 | 27 | 27.6 | 32 | 32.9 | 21 | 18.3 | 30 | 31.8 | 22 | 23.8 |
11/20/2023 | 41 | 42.2 | 33 | 28.8 | 41 | 40.3 | 28 | 29.9 | 40 | 42.6 | 26 | 27.6 | 31 | 32.9 | 22 | 18.3 |
11/19/2023 | 39 | 40.1 | 28 | 25.4 | 42 | 42.2 | 32 | 28.8 | 40 | 40.3 | 26 | 29.9 | 34 | 42.6 | 25 | 27.6 |
11/18/2023 | 46 | 51.9 | 33 | 31.5 | 39 | 40.1 | 29 | 25.4 | 41 | 42.2 | 32 | 28.8 | 39 | 40.3 | 26 | 29.9 |
11/17/2023 | 38 | 40.2 | 32 | 31.3 | 46 | 51.9 | 33 | 31.5 | 38 | 40.1 | 28 | 25.4 | 41 | 42.2 | 31 | 28.8 |
11/16/2023 | 59 | 63.6 | 34 | 34.7 | 37 | 40.2 | 28 | 31.3 | 45 | 51.9 | 33 | 31.5 | 39 | 40.1 | 30 | 25.4 |
11/15/2023 | 53 | 55.9 | 38 | 34.0 | 58 | 63.6 | 34 | 34.7 | 38 | 40.2 | 30 | 31.3 | 43 | 51.9 | 30 | 31.5 |
11/14/2023 | 54 | 53.2 | 44 | 45.6 | 52 | 55.9 | 37 | 34.0 | 56 | 63.6 | 33 | 34.7 | 38 | 40.2 | 30 | 31.3 |
11/13/2023 | 48 | 47.4 | 32 | 32.6 | 52 | 53.2 | 42 | 45.6 | 51 | 55.9 | 36 | 34.0 | 54 | 63.6 | 34 | 34.7 |
11/12/2023 | 47 | 49.7 | 40 | 41.7 | 46 | 47.4 | 33 | 32.6 | 50 | 53.2 | 43 | 45.6 | 53 | 55.9 | 36 | 34.0 |
11/11/2023 | 40 | 42.5 | 34 | 35.0 | 46 | 49.7 | 40 | 41.7 | 47 | 47.4 | 34 | 32.6 | 50 | 53.2 | 43 | 45.6 |
11/10/2023 | 37 | 36.8 | 30 | 29.7 | 38 | 42.5 | 31 | 35.0 | 47 | 49.7 | 40 | 41.7 | 47 | 47.4 | 35 | 32.6 |
11/09/2023 | 41 | 41.5 | 31 | 35.4 | 37 | 36.8 | 31 | 29.7 | 39 | 42.5 | 32 | 35.0 | 45 | 49.7 | 38 | 41.7 |
11/08/2023 | 37 | 35.5 | 36 | 34.6 | 41 | 41.5 | 34 | 35.4 | 39 | 36.8 | 32 | 29.7 | 39 | 42.5 | 30 | 35.0 |
11/07/2023 | 34 | 34.6 | 30 | 29.6 | 37 | 35.5 | 35 | 34.6 | 42 | 41.5 | 33 | 35.4 | 39 | 36.8 | 32 | 29.7 |
11/06/2023 | 50 | 52.4 | 33 | 31.6 | 34 | 34.6 | 29 | 29.6 | 39 | 35.5 | 34 | 34.6 | 42 | 41.5 | 32 | 35.4 |
11/05/2023 | 44 | 42.9 | 40 | 39.2 | 50 | 52.4 | 34 | 31.6 | 37 | 34.6 | 31 | 29.6 | 39 | 35.5 | 37 | 34.6 |
11/04/2023 | 43 | 45.8 | 33 | 36.2 | 44 | 42.9 | 38 | 39.2 | 50 | 52.4 | 32 | 31.6 | 36 | 34.6 | 30 | 29.6 |
11/03/2023 | 48 | 49.4 | 29 | 28.7 | 42 | 45.8 | 33 | 36.2 | 44 | 42.9 | 38 | 39.2 | 50 | 52.4 | 35 | 31.6 |
11/02/2023 | 42 | 46.1 | 32 | 35.2 | 43 | 49.4 | 30 | 28.7 | 44 | 45.8 | 34 | 36.2 | 45 | 42.9 | 37 | 39.2 |
11/01/2023 | 38 | 40.0 | 26 | 30.7 | 43 | 46.1 | 33 | 35.2 | 46 | 49.4 | 32 | 28.7 | 44 | 45.8 | 34 | 36.2 |
10/31/2023 | 35 | 34.9 | 25 | 29.0 | 39 | 40.0 | 29 | 30.7 | 42 | 46.1 | 30 | 35.2 | 42 | 49.4 | 32 | 28.7 |
10/30/2023 | 35 | 37.4 | 27 | 23.1 | 36 | 34.9 | 25 | 29.0 | 38 | 40.0 | 28 | 30.7 | 41 | 46.1 | 30 | 35.2 |
Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
Net | -1.0 | 0.1 | -1.5 | 0.0 | -1.2 | -0.1 | -1.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||
MAE | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.6 | ||||||||
RMS | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 2.9 | ||||||||
Goal % | 86.7 | 70.0 | 69.0 | 69.0 | 64.3 | 82.1 | 59.3 | 66.7 |
Updated every day at 9:03AM ET
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
- Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18
(Auto night: 6:16 PM - 6:58 AM)