Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
01/18/2019	17	14.8	4		13		6		11		0		19		15
01/17/2019	23	20.2	13	12.8	13	14.8	5		13		4		8		1
01/16/2019	15	15.5	9	2.6	22	20.2	12	12.8	14	14.8	5		12		3
01/15/2019	34	32.9	15	10.5	16	15.5	9	2.6	22	20.2	11	12.8	15	14.8	6
01/14/2019	32	30.3	22	19.7	32	32.9	14	10.5	16	15.5	10	2.6	22	20.2	12	12.8
01/13/2019	28	27.4	21	19.9	32	30.3	22	19.7	31	32.9	14	10.5	17	15.5	9	2.6
01/12/2019	24	24.3	12	11.1	30	27.4	22	19.9	32	30.3	24	19.7	33	32.9	16	10.5
01/11/2019	25	22.2	21	20.6	24	24.3	13	11.1	29	27.4	23	19.9	33	30.3	24	19.7
01/10/2019	19	19.0	12	16.3	25	22.2	20	20.6	25	24.3	17	11.1	29	27.4	23	19.9
01/09/2019	19	19.0	15	14.9	19	19.0	14	16.3	25	22.2	20	20.6	26	24.3	18	11.1
01/08/2019	34	34.0	19	16.7	20	19.0	14	14.9	19	19.0	14	16.3	23	22.2	19	20.6
01/07/2019	37	34.6	30	31.7	34	34.0	18	16.7	21	19.0	14	14.9	18	19.0	13	16.3
01/06/2019	29	28.3	23	25.6	38	34.6	31	31.7	34	34.0	19	16.7	22	19.0	15	14.9
01/05/2019	38	37.7	23	25.8	26	28.3	22	25.6	37	34.6	30	31.7	34	34.0	22	16.7
01/04/2019	40	39.5	29	27.8	39	37.7	23	25.8	27	28.3	23	25.6	35	34.6	30	31.7
01/03/2019	35	34.4	30	29.6	39	39.5	28	27.8	41	37.7	27	25.8	30	28.3	24	25.6
01/02/2019	23	23.7	15	20.7	34	34.4	29	29.6	40	39.5	31	27.8	42	37.7	28	25.8
01/01/2019	19	17.3	7	3.4	23	23.7	16	20.7	33	34.4	28	29.6	39	39.5	30	27.8
12/31/2018	32	31.4	15	14.5	19	17.3	4	3.4	22	23.7	17	20.7	36	34.4	27	29.6
12/30/2018	29	25.3	24	22.5	31	31.4	16	14.5	20	17.3	8	3.4	20	23.7	12	20.7
12/29/2018	21	19.2	13	12.0	30	25.3	25	22.5	32	31.4	16	14.5	19	17.3	5	3.4
12/28/2018	33	35.2	13	14.1	20	19.2	16	12.0	30	25.3	25	22.5	30	31.4	16	14.5
12/27/2018	37	35.3	37	28.5	33	35.2	13	14.1	20	19.2	15	12.0	30	25.3	24	22.5
12/26/2018	28	30.4	24	26.5	36	35.3	36	28.5	32	35.2	14	14.1	18	19.2	11	12.0
12/25/2018	30	30.5	21	26.2	26	30.4	23	26.5	36	35.3	32	28.5	34	35.2	15	14.1
12/24/2018	30	29.4	20	24.9	30	30.5	20	26.2	27	30.4	23	26.5	34	35.3	29	28.5
12/23/2018	30	30.1	25	23.4	30	29.4	21	24.9	30	30.5	21	26.2	26	30.4	22	26.5
12/22/2018	27	27.3	22	23.8	29	30.1	24	23.4	30	29.4	21	24.9	29	30.5	20	26.2
12/21/2018	29	26.9	25	22.9	27	27.3	22	23.8	30	30.1	23	23.4	29	29.4	20	24.9
12/20/2018	38	38.3	26	25.8	29	26.9	24	22.9	27	27.3	21	23.8	30	30.1	23	23.4
12/19/2018	40	42.4	35	35.6	38	38.3	26	25.8	30	26.9	23	22.9	28	27.3	23	23.8
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	0.6		0.2		0.3		0.1		0.5		0.5		0.4		0.1
MAE	1.2		2.4		1.4		2.4		1.6		2.8		1.6		3.0
RMS	1.6		3.2		1.8		3.1		2		3.3		2.1		3.7
Goal %	96.8		73.3		90.0		69.0		82.8		57.1		85.7		59.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18