Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
10/16/2018	45		33		38		29		52		44		52		38
10/15/2018	40	41.9	33	31.1	45		32		38		30		53		45
10/14/2018	44	44.4	33	33.0	41	41.9	33	31.1	45		33		38		30
10/13/2018	49	50.5	39	38.9	44	44.4	33	33.0	40	41.9	33	31.1	45		33
10/12/2018	38	40.2	32	28.8	49	50.5	39	38.9	45	44.4	34	33.0	40	41.9	32	31.1
10/11/2018	46	48.2	35	33.0	39	40.2	31	28.8	46	50.5	36	38.9	41	44.4	32	33.0
10/10/2018	46	46.1	44	43.6	45	48.2	35	33.0	40	40.2	32	28.8	45	50.5	38	38.9
10/09/2018	46	45.3	45	42.6	52	46.1	42	43.6	44	48.2	35	33.0	42	40.2	33	28.8
10/08/2018	48	47.1	46	43.1	47	45.3	47	42.6	57	46.1	40	43.6	45	48.2	34	33.0
10/07/2018	44	43.4	42	42.9	51	47.1	48	43.1	57	45.3	49	42.6	58	46.1	44	43.6
10/06/2018	50	52.6	42	40.4	45	43.4	42	42.9	51	47.1	48	43.1	58	45.3	49	42.6
10/05/2018	46	44.5	44	44.0	52	52.6	42	40.4	47	43.4	42	42.9	52	47.1	49	43.1
10/04/2018	47	49.1	36	33.1	46	44.5	44	44.0	53	52.6	41	40.4	48	43.4	42	42.9
10/03/2018	67	68.2	43	40.4	48	49.1	36	33.1	47	44.5	45	44.0	53	52.6	41	40.4
10/02/2018	53	54.8	48	50.7	68	68.2	44	40.4	49	49.1	38	33.1	47	44.5	44	44.0
10/01/2018	47	49.6	41	41.4	52	54.8	46	50.7	67	68.2	46	40.4	51	49.1	39	33.1
09/30/2018	51	55.3	41	39.8	49	49.6	41	41.4	51	54.8	45	50.7	66	68.2	47	40.4
09/29/2018	45	45.1	37	35.2	50	55.3	41	39.8	48	49.6	40	41.4	52	54.8	45	50.7
09/28/2018	48	50.6	35	36.6	46	45.1	38	35.2	51	55.3	40	39.8	48	49.6	40	41.4
09/27/2018	58	54.7	42	44.7	50	50.6	37	36.6	47	45.1	36	35.2	49	55.3	41	39.8
09/26/2018	55	59.8	46	44.2	57	54.7	43	44.7	50	50.6	38	36.6	47	45.1	37	35.2
09/25/2018	59	63.2	46	45.1	56	59.8	46	44.2	58	54.7	43	44.7	51	50.6	38	36.6
09/24/2018	68	68.5	56	58.7	60	63.2	45	45.1	57	59.8	46	44.2	56	54.7	43	44.7
09/23/2018	51	49.2	50	47.6	70	68.5	56	58.7	58	63.2	46	45.1	56	59.8	44	44.2
09/22/2018	64	65.4	46	48.0	53	49.2	49	47.6	71	68.5	57	58.7	62	63.2	45	45.1
09/21/2018	66	70.3	43	44.0	62	65.4	45	48.0	54	49.2	49	47.6	71	68.5	55	58.7
09/20/2018	64	59.7	56	58.2	63	70.3	41	44.0	60	65.4	45	48.0	55	49.2	48	47.6
09/19/2018	60	60.0	54	55.9	64	59.7	57	58.2	62	70.3	42	44.0	60	65.4	45	48.0
09/18/2018	56	55.4	47	50.6	61	60.0	54	55.9	66	59.7	55	58.2	60	70.3	42	44.0
09/17/2018	76	82.9	51	52.1	56	55.4	47	50.6	60	60.0	53	55.9	65	59.7	54	58.2
09/16/2018	84	85.6	66	71.1	76	82.9	50	52.1	58	55.4	47	50.6	62	60.0	52	55.9
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.2		0.0		-0.5		0.1		0.4		0.2		0.5		0.3
MAE	2.1		1.9		2.5		2.0		3.5		2.5		4.0		2.4
RMS	2.7		2.2		3.2		2.4		4.6		3		5.1		3.2
Goal %	76.7		90.0		62.1		82.8		50.0		67.9		51.9		66.7

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18