Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
05/26/2019	62		41		49		42		56		45		62		45
05/25/2019	75	81.7	46	52.4	58		42		55		45		58		46
05/24/2019	54	58.3	49	52.8	77	81.7	46	52.4	57		42		60		46
05/23/2019	58	64.4	41	42.9	55	58.3	48	52.8	72	81.7	46	52.4	58		42
05/22/2019	55	54.9	47	49.3	58	64.4	42	42.9	56	58.3	47	52.8	63	81.7	43	52.4
05/21/2019	56	57.1	43	47.5	55	54.9	47	49.3	59	64.4	42	42.9	57	58.3	48	52.8
05/20/2019	51	56.2	38	38.0	56	57.1	42	47.5	55	54.9	45	49.3	61	64.4	44	42.9
05/19/2019	39	39.8	38	38.4	50	56.2	38	38.0	56	57.1	42	47.5	54	54.9	44	49.3
05/18/2019	41	40.6	38	37.7	41	39.8	39	38.4	50	56.2	38	38.0	57	57.1	43	47.5
05/17/2019	47	48.5	36	38.5	42	40.6	38	37.7	44	39.8	38	38.4	49	56.2	37	38.0
05/16/2019	62	69.0	38	37.8	49	48.5	36	38.5	46	40.6	38	37.7	44	39.8	38	38.4
05/15/2019	52	52.3	38	40.5	61	69.0	39	37.8	49	48.5	35	38.5	47	40.6	38	37.7
05/14/2019	68	68.6	43	45.9	50	52.3	39	40.5	56	69.0	39	37.8	49	48.5	39	38.5
05/13/2019	58	58.3	40	47.1	66	68.6	43	45.9	54	52.3	41	40.5	57	69.0	40	37.8
05/12/2019	52	56.1	35	36.6	57	58.3	39	47.1	64	68.6	42	45.9	55	52.3	38	40.5
05/11/2019	58	60.7	35	38.6	54	56.1	36	36.6	57	58.3	41	47.1	64	68.6	43	45.9
05/10/2019	46	48.5	34	37.9	59	60.7	37	38.6	54	56.1	36	36.6	56	58.3	40	47.1
05/09/2019	41	39.3	36	35.2	48	48.5	34	37.9	58	60.7	40	38.6	52	56.1	37	36.6
05/08/2019	44	43.8	36	36.1	40	39.3	35	35.2	49	48.5	37	37.9	59	60.7	41	38.6
05/07/2019	43	44.9	30	29.3	43	43.8	36	36.1	40	39.3	35	35.2	48	48.5	35	37.9
05/06/2019	43	43.6	31	28.5	47	44.9	33	29.3	50	43.8	36	36.1	37	39.3	34	35.2
05/05/2019	52	50.6	36	38.3	45	43.6	32	28.5	48	44.9	33	29.3	48	43.8	36	36.1
05/04/2019	64	65.9	41	40.7	52	50.6	35	38.3	46	43.6	33	28.5	46	44.9	32	29.3
05/03/2019	50	44.3	38	34.6	61	65.9	41	40.7	53	50.6	34	38.3	49	43.6	36	28.5
05/02/2019	46	47.0	33	32.4	47	44.3	35	34.6	61	65.9	41	40.7	54	50.6	35	38.3
05/01/2019	36	35.8	34	33.9	43	47.0	34	32.4	48	44.3	35	34.6	58	65.9	40	40.7
04/30/2019	40	37.7	35	32.8	38	35.8	34	33.9	43	47.0	33	32.4	48	44.3	36	34.6
04/29/2019	41	41.0	33	33.8	42	37.7	35	32.8	37	35.8	34	33.9	43	47.0	34	32.4
04/28/2019	50	48.9	34	36.1	41	41.0	33	33.8	42	37.7	36	32.8	41	35.8	34	33.9
04/27/2019	40	40.1	27	26.4	49	48.9	33	36.1	43	41.0	34	33.8	44	37.7	33	32.8
04/26/2019	45	48.2	30	30.1	41	40.1	29	26.4	44	48.9	33	36.1	42	41.0	33	33.8
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.3		-1.2		-1.1		-1.1		-0.9		-1.1		-1.0		-1.0
MAE	2.2		2.0		2.4		2.2		3.6		2.2		4.3		2.5
RMS	3		2.7		3.1		3		4.6		3.1		5.8		3.5
Goal %	73.3		76.7		72.4		69.0		50.0		57.1		40.7		74.1

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18