Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal:
+/- 3°F
Forecast Day+1 Day+2 Day+3 Day
HighLowHighLowHighLowHighLow
DateNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSAct
01/18/20191714.841361101915
01/17/20192320.21312.81314.8513481
01/16/20191515.592.62220.21212.81414.85123
01/15/20193432.91510.51615.592.62220.21112.81514.86
01/14/20193230.32219.73232.91410.51615.5102.62220.21212.8
01/13/20192827.42119.93230.32219.73132.91410.51715.592.6
01/12/20192424.31211.13027.42219.93230.32419.73332.91610.5
01/11/20192522.22120.62424.31311.12927.42319.93330.32419.7
01/10/20191919.01216.32522.22020.62524.31711.12927.42319.9
01/09/20191919.01514.91919.01416.32522.22020.62624.31811.1
01/08/20193434.01916.72019.01414.91919.01416.32322.21920.6
01/07/20193734.63031.73434.01816.72119.01414.91819.01316.3
01/06/20192928.32325.63834.63131.73434.01916.72219.01514.9
01/05/20193837.72325.82628.32225.63734.63031.73434.02216.7
01/04/20194039.52927.83937.72325.82728.32325.63534.63031.7
01/03/20193534.43029.63939.52827.84137.72725.83028.32425.6
01/02/20192323.71520.73434.42929.64039.53127.84237.72825.8
01/01/20191917.373.42323.71620.73334.42829.63939.53027.8
12/31/20183231.41514.51917.343.42223.71720.73634.42729.6
12/30/20182925.32422.53131.41614.52017.383.42023.71220.7
12/29/20182119.21312.03025.32522.53231.41614.51917.353.4
12/28/20183335.21314.12019.21612.03025.32522.53031.41614.5
12/27/20183735.33728.53335.21314.12019.21512.03025.32422.5
12/26/20182830.42426.53635.33628.53235.21414.11819.21112.0
12/25/20183030.52126.22630.42326.53635.33228.53435.21514.1
12/24/20183029.42024.93030.52026.22730.42326.53435.32928.5
12/23/20183030.12523.43029.42124.93030.52126.22630.42226.5
12/22/20182727.32223.82930.12423.43029.42124.92930.52026.2
12/21/20182926.92522.92727.32223.83030.12323.42929.42024.9
12/20/20183838.32625.82926.92422.92727.32123.83030.12323.4
12/19/20184042.43535.63838.32625.83026.92322.92827.32323.8
ErrorsNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSActNWSAct
Net0.60.20.30.10.50.50.40.1
MAE1.22.41.42.41.62.81.63.0
RMS1.63.21.83.123.32.13.7
Goal %96.873.390.069.082.857.185.759.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

(data begins: 2017-06-08)
(minimum: start + 4 days)

NOTES:

  1. Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
  2. Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
  3. MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
  4. Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
  5. In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
  6. Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
  7. Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
  8. Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18