Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
07/21/2019	70	68.9	56		72		58		75		60		78		62
07/20/2019	79	79.8	60	61.7	70	68.9	56		74		57		76		57
07/19/2019	89	87.6	67	67.0	77	79.8	59	61.7	71	68.9	55		76		58
07/18/2019	82	85.3	69	71.7	90	87.6	64	67.0	78	79.8	58	61.7	73	68.9	56
07/17/2019	80	73.9	66	68.2	84	85.3	68	71.7	92	87.6	64	67.0	81	79.8	59	61.7
07/16/2019	84	82.6	59	61.0	77	73.9	65	68.2	85	85.3	67	71.7	90	87.6	65	67.0
07/15/2019	85	86.9	70	67.8	86	82.6	62	61.0	82	73.9	66	68.2	86	85.3	66	71.7
07/14/2019	82	84.0	67	66.2	85	86.9	68	67.8	85	82.6	63	61.0	76	73.9	62	68.2
07/13/2019	78	75.6	57	59.5	83	84.0	66	66.2	85	86.9	70	67.8	86	82.6	63	61.0
07/12/2019	82	85.0	59	64.8	74	75.6	56	59.5	83	84.0	66	66.2	89	86.9	68	67.8
07/11/2019	71	72.1	60	60.6	83	85.0	58	64.8	74	75.6	56	59.5	81	84.0	64	66.2
07/10/2019	83	92.1	56	59.3	67	72.1	54	60.6	84	85.0	59	64.8	74	75.6	56	59.5
07/09/2019	82	83.4	63	65.7	83	92.1	58	59.3	71	72.1	54	60.6	84	85.0	61	64.8
07/08/2019	76	73.9	60	64.4	82	83.4	63	65.7	80	92.1	57	59.3	68	72.1	53	60.6
07/07/2019	74	67.2	53	51.3	79	73.9	60	64.4	82	83.4	63	65.7	79	92.1	56	59.3
07/06/2019	72	68.1	50	53.4	71	67.2	55	51.3	80	73.9	59	64.4	82	83.4	63	65.7
07/05/2019	78	77.2	58	61.8	68	68.1	50	53.4	72	67.2	53	51.3	77	73.9	59	64.4
07/04/2019	86	90.9	63	62.9	76	77.2	56	61.8	68	68.1	51	53.4	72	67.2	54	51.3
07/03/2019	81	89.2	62	64.2	89	90.9	62	62.9	74	77.2	54	61.8	69	68.1	51	53.4
07/02/2019	79	83.6	60	65.2	82	89.2	62	64.2	81	90.9	60	62.9	74	77.2	56	61.8
07/01/2019	78	77.2	62	60.8	77	83.6	60	65.2	80	89.2	61	64.2	78	90.9	59	62.9
06/30/2019	78	81.1	67	63.2	78	77.2	59	60.8	77	83.6	60	65.2	78	89.2	60	64.2
06/29/2019	74	77.6	56	55.2	79	81.1	62	63.2	78	77.2	58	60.8	77	83.6	58	65.2
06/28/2019	75	70.8	58	58.5	76	77.6	57	55.2	80	81.1	62	63.2	77	77.2	57	60.8
06/27/2019	83	83.2	59	56.0	77	70.8	58	58.5	76	77.6	57	55.2	79	81.1	60	63.2
06/26/2019	80	83.9	62	68.8	81	83.2	57	56.0	76	70.8	57	58.5	75	77.6	54	55.2
06/25/2019	77	85.0	59	62.8	78	83.9	59	68.8	78	83.2	58	56.0	76	70.8	58	58.5
06/24/2019	69	76.8	55	57.8	76	85.0	58	62.8	75	83.9	58	68.8	76	83.2	58	56.0
06/23/2019	74	76.1	56	61.0	68	76.8	54	57.8	73	85.0	58	62.8	75	83.9	57	68.8
06/22/2019	70	66.1	53	53.9	68	76.1	56	61.0	70	76.8	55	57.8	74	85.0	58	62.8
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.1		-1.7		-1.9		-2.7		-1.9		-2.8		-2.2		-3.3
MAE	3.5		2.6		3.7		3.2		4.3		3.5		4.4		3.9
RMS	4.2		3.1		4.6		3.9		5.6		4.2		5.8		4.6
Goal %	50.0		65.5		55.2		50.0		50.0		59.3		48.1		42.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18