Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
09/15/2019	65		54		75		60		76		63		74		61
09/14/2019	66	69.9	53	50.8	68		56		71		59		76		62
09/13/2019	70	72.8	52	54.2	66	69.9	53	50.8	68		55		71		58
09/12/2019	61	57.3	56	54.2	68	72.8	53	54.2	65	69.9	53	50.8	67		55
09/11/2019	57	55.7	52	52.3	62	57.3	55	54.2	66	72.8	53	54.2	65	69.9	53	50.8
09/10/2019	79	81.9	53	55.0	58	55.7	52	52.3	60	57.3	55	54.2	68	72.8	53	54.2
09/09/2019	63	64.4	55	54.2	75	81.9	56	55.0	61	55.7	53	52.3	62	57.3	56	54.2
09/08/2019	59	60.4	45	46.2	63	64.4	55	54.2	75	81.9	55	55.0	62	55.7	52	52.3
09/07/2019	59	60.8	48	54.6	58	60.4	45	46.2	63	64.4	54	54.2	70	81.9	57	55.0
09/06/2019	62	60.8	53	53.6	59	60.8	49	54.6	58	60.4	46	46.2	63	64.4	54	54.2
09/05/2019	66	70.8	56	57.3	63	60.8	51	53.6	60	60.8	50	54.6	60	60.4	48	46.2
09/04/2019	63	61.4	49	49.1	65	70.8	54	57.3	64	60.8	53	53.6	61	60.8	48	54.6
09/03/2019	66	69.3	51	52.1	62	61.4	50	49.1	65	70.8	55	57.3	66	60.8	52	53.6
09/02/2019	61	61.6	50	48.8	70	69.3	50	52.1	63	61.4	50	49.1	67	70.8	54	57.3
09/01/2019	71	73.0	56	59.1	64	61.6	53	48.8	76	69.3	50	52.1	60	61.4	48	49.1
08/31/2019	70	74.6	55	55.5	72	73.0	58	59.1	67	61.6	55	48.8	72	69.3	50	52.1
08/30/2019	67	70.4	51	53.3	70	74.6	54	55.5	73	73.0	58	59.1	70	61.6	58	48.8
08/29/2019	70	71.4	54	51.4	68	70.4	52	53.3	71	74.6	54	55.5	72	73.0	58	59.1
08/28/2019	61	64.6	53	54.2	72	71.4	54	51.4	68	70.4	51	53.3	70	74.6	53	55.5
08/27/2019	73	77.5	55	55.6	64	64.6	54	54.2	73	71.4	54	51.4	66	70.4	51	53.3
08/26/2019	73	70.9	62	58.6	75	77.5	56	55.6	65	64.6	54	54.2	74	71.4	56	51.4
08/25/2019	75	78.9	60	59.1	76	70.9	62	58.6	74	77.5	57	55.6	65	64.6	55	54.2
08/24/2019	72	70.2	54	54.3	75	78.9	59	59.1	76	70.9	62	58.6	75	77.5	57	55.6
08/23/2019	64	66.4	48	49.6	73	70.2	55	54.3	79	78.9	60	59.1	78	70.9	62	58.6
08/22/2019	64	65.1	51	50.8	64	66.4	50	49.6	73	70.2	56	54.3	76	78.9	61	59.1
08/21/2019	68	72.1	55	53.3	64	65.1	54	50.8	65	66.4	52	49.6	74	70.2	58	54.3
08/20/2019	82	81.0	60	60.7	69	72.1	54	53.3	67	65.1	51	50.8	68	66.4	53	49.6
08/19/2019	80	81.3	63	64.4	82	81.0	59	60.7	69	72.1	55	53.3	64	65.1	52	50.8
08/18/2019	75	74.7	58	60.4	80	81.3	62	64.4	82	81.0	59	60.7	73	72.1	54	53.3
08/17/2019	76	76.9	63	63.4	75	74.7	59	60.4	79	81.3	64	64.4	80	81.0	58	60.7
08/16/2019	73	75.4	60	57.6	78	76.9	65	63.4	78	74.7	59	60.4	82	81.3	63	64.4
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.5		-0.4		-0.9		-0.1		-0.2		0.2		-0.1		0.4
MAE	2.4		1.6		2.5		1.7		3.1		1.6		3.4		2.4
RMS	2.7		2		3.1		2.1		3.7		2.1		4.3		3.1
Goal %	66.7		90.0		69.0		82.8		53.6		89.3		55.6		74.1

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18