Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
11/12/2019	18	19.4	12		23		19		32		22		26		16
11/11/2019	19	20.5	10	9.5	20	19.4	11		24		20		32		26
11/10/2019	30	30.0	15	15.2	20	20.5	12	9.5	18	19.4	10		26		19
11/09/2019	37	34.6	29	27.1	31	30.0	16	15.2	21	20.5	14	9.5	21	19.4	13
11/08/2019	28	27.1	25	23.3	37	34.6	27	27.1	31	30.0	15	15.2	21	20.5	14	9.5
11/07/2019	28	26.9	18	15.4	29	27.1	24	23.3	36	34.6	27	27.1	30	30.0	16	15.2
11/06/2019	31	30.0	21	22.0	28	26.9	20	15.4	30	27.1	24	23.3	36	34.6	25	27.1
11/05/2019	29	30.0	22	19.7	31	30.0	22	22.0	29	26.9	20	15.4	30	27.1	24	23.3
11/04/2019	41	39.8	27	25.5	30	30.0	24	19.7	31	30.0	21	22.0	27	26.9	19	15.4
11/03/2019	39	39.3	32	32.1	41	39.8	27	25.5	31	30.0	25	19.7	32	30.0	22	22.0
11/02/2019	38	39.0	29	29.4	40	39.3	33	32.1	42	39.8	29	25.5	34	30.0	25	19.7
11/01/2019	36	37.0	32	33.6	38	39.0	30	29.4	40	39.3	32	32.1	41	39.8	30	25.5
10/31/2019	36	34.4	28	28.7	40	37.0	31	33.6	38	39.0	30	29.4	41	39.3	33	32.1
10/30/2019	39	37.7	29	29.6	38	34.4	28	28.7	39	37.0	32	33.6	38	39.0	29	29.4
10/29/2019	41	42.0	27	27.2	39	37.7	30	29.6	38	34.4	29	28.7	39	37.0	31	33.6
10/28/2019	43	46.7	32	31.0	42	42.0	28	27.2	39	37.7	30	29.6	38	34.4	31	28.7
10/27/2019	53	53.0	36	39.4	42	46.7	32	31.0	42	42.0	30	27.2	38	37.7	29	29.6
10/26/2019	52	54.4	40	39.0	50	53.0	35	39.4	42	46.7	33	31.0	41	42.0	29	27.2
10/25/2019	47	49.7	36	36.5	51	54.4	39	39.0	49	53.0	33	39.4	41	46.7	31	31.0
10/24/2019	42	46.2	29	31.7	46	49.7	36	36.5	51	54.4	38	39.0	47	53.0	34	39.4
10/23/2019	45	47.5	36	35.5	40	46.2	33	31.7	45	49.7	36	36.5	51	54.4	40	39.0
10/22/2019	51	50.1	41	40.1	44	47.5	37	35.5	42	46.2	31	31.7	44	49.7	35	36.5
10/21/2019	54	54.6	46	46.3	50	50.1	42	40.1	46	47.5	36	35.5	42	46.2	31	31.7
10/20/2019	59	56.3	48	43.1	55	54.6	45	46.3	49	50.1	40	40.1	45	47.5	36	35.5
10/19/2019	56	63.6	45	40.3	59	56.3	46	43.1	55	54.6	46	46.3	50	50.1	40	40.1
10/18/2019	52	55.9	46	45.9	55	63.6	44	40.3	57	56.3	46	43.1	56	54.6	44	46.3
10/17/2019	44	47.1	35	34.7	54	55.9	46	45.9	55	63.6	44	40.3	58	56.3	47	43.1
10/16/2019	45	48.1	40	40.1	44	47.1	36	34.7	53	55.9	46	45.9	56	63.6	44	40.3
10/15/2019	47	45.0	43	42.5	47	48.1	40	40.1	48	47.1	39	34.7	58	55.9	48	45.9
10/14/2019	46	47.8	36	36.4	47	45.0	42	42.5	47	48.1	40	40.1	48	47.1	40	34.7
10/13/2019	43	41.4	35	35.1	47	47.8	37	36.4	47	45.0	42	42.5	46	48.1	39	40.1
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-0.8		0.4		-0.6		0.7		-0.5		0.8		-0.4		0.9
MAE	1.9		1.2		2.2		1.4		2.1		1.7		2.4		2.1
RMS	2.4		1.8		2.9		2		2.8		2.6		3.1		2.8
Goal %	80.6		90.0		73.3		86.2		75.9		75.0		71.4		70.4

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18