Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
05/28/2022 | 65 | 51 | 73 | 58 | 89 | 65 | 84 | 52 | ||||||||
05/27/2022 | 58 | 60.0 | 45 | 45.9 | 67 | 51 | 74 | 58 | 86 | 65 | ||||||
05/26/2022 | 54 | 54.3 | 44 | 49.1 | 57 | 60.0 | 44 | 45.9 | 69 | 51 | 72 | 59 | ||||
05/25/2022 | 51 | 51.8 | 43 | 41.7 | 55 | 54.3 | 44 | 49.1 | 58 | 60.0 | 43 | 45.9 | 68 | 50 | ||
05/24/2022 | 66 | 66.2 | 45 | 48.7 | 52 | 51.8 | 45 | 41.7 | 54 | 54.3 | 44 | 49.1 | 57 | 60.0 | 44 | 45.9 |
05/23/2022 | 56 | 59.8 | 40 | 45.5 | 62 | 66.2 | 45 | 48.7 | 54 | 51.8 | 44 | 41.7 | 53 | 54.3 | 43 | 49.1 |
05/22/2022 | 47 | 48.0 | 32 | 40.3 | 56 | 59.8 | 43 | 45.5 | 62 | 66.2 | 44 | 48.7 | 53 | 51.8 | 42 | 41.7 |
05/21/2022 | 46 | 46.9 | 38 | 40.1 | 50 | 48.0 | 37 | 40.3 | 58 | 59.8 | 42 | 45.5 | 59 | 66.2 | 42 | 48.7 |
05/20/2022 | 61 | 62.9 | 39 | 38.9 | 46 | 46.9 | 38 | 40.1 | 49 | 48.0 | 37 | 40.3 | 55 | 59.8 | 41 | 45.5 |
05/19/2022 | 51 | 49.9 | 46 | 39.8 | 67 | 62.9 | 40 | 38.9 | 49 | 46.9 | 38 | 40.1 | 49 | 48.0 | 36 | 40.3 |
05/18/2022 | 61 | 73.0 | 46 | 42.7 | 59 | 49.9 | 46 | 39.8 | 66 | 62.9 | 41 | 38.9 | 51 | 46.9 | 38 | 40.1 |
05/17/2022 | 49 | 48.2 | 37 | 39.8 | 60 | 73.0 | 45 | 42.7 | 58 | 49.9 | 44 | 39.8 | 65 | 62.9 | 40 | 38.9 |
05/16/2022 | 53 | 55.9 | 38 | 41.9 | 50 | 48.2 | 38 | 39.8 | 61 | 73.0 | 46 | 42.7 | 60 | 49.9 | 47 | 39.8 |
05/15/2022 | 66 | 69.7 | 45 | 50.5 | 53 | 55.9 | 39 | 41.9 | 51 | 48.2 | 38 | 39.8 | 62 | 73.0 | 47 | 42.7 |
05/14/2022 | 68 | 71.0 | 49 | 51.7 | 65 | 69.7 | 45 | 50.5 | 53 | 55.9 | 39 | 41.9 | 50 | 48.2 | 38 | 39.8 |
05/13/2022 | 83 | 89.6 | 56 | 49.6 | 70 | 71.0 | 49 | 51.7 | 64 | 69.7 | 44 | 50.5 | 52 | 55.9 | 40 | 41.9 |
05/12/2022 | 83 | 86.4 | 54 | 45.2 | 82 | 89.6 | 54 | 49.6 | 68 | 71.0 | 49 | 51.7 | 64 | 69.7 | 46 | 50.5 |
05/11/2022 | 60 | 60.4 | 48 | 46.0 | 77 | 86.4 | 60 | 45.2 | 79 | 89.6 | 53 | 49.6 | 68 | 71.0 | 48 | 51.7 |
05/10/2022 | 71 | 75.0 | 46 | 44.6 | 64 | 60.4 | 49 | 46.0 | 74 | 86.4 | 62 | 45.2 | 80 | 89.6 | 52 | 49.6 |
05/09/2022 | 70 | 74.5 | 57 | 58.8 | 71 | 75.0 | 48 | 44.6 | 63 | 60.4 | 50 | 46.0 | 73 | 86.4 | 58 | 45.2 |
05/08/2022 | 63 | 65.4 | 47 | 50.3 | 69 | 74.5 | 55 | 58.8 | 70 | 75.0 | 48 | 44.6 | 62 | 60.4 | 49 | 46.0 |
05/07/2022 | 61 | 58.7 | 40 | 44.0 | 60 | 65.4 | 47 | 50.3 | 65 | 74.5 | 54 | 58.8 | 68 | 75.0 | 49 | 44.6 |
05/06/2022 | 54 | 54.5 | 36 | 35.3 | 59 | 58.7 | 41 | 44.0 | 63 | 65.4 | 48 | 50.3 | 66 | 74.5 | 53 | 58.8 |
05/05/2022 | 55 | 56.1 | 36 | 35.6 | 53 | 54.5 | 37 | 35.3 | 56 | 58.7 | 41 | 44.0 | 60 | 65.4 | 48 | 50.3 |
05/04/2022 | 47 | 47.7 | 34 | 31.7 | 53 | 56.1 | 35 | 35.6 | 52 | 54.5 | 37 | 35.3 | 55 | 58.7 | 42 | 44.0 |
05/03/2022 | 43 | 42.9 | 33 | 33.3 | 47 | 47.7 | 34 | 31.7 | 54 | 56.1 | 36 | 35.6 | 55 | 54.5 | 38 | 35.3 |
05/02/2022 | 49 | 50.0 | 36 | 38.0 | 43 | 42.9 | 33 | 33.3 | 48 | 47.7 | 35 | 31.7 | 54 | 56.1 | 37 | 35.6 |
05/01/2022 | 49 | 53.1 | 40 | 42.2 | 48 | 50.0 | 37 | 38.0 | 44 | 42.9 | 34 | 33.3 | 46 | 47.7 | 33 | 31.7 |
04/30/2022 | 56 | 61.6 | 41 | 42.9 | 50 | 53.1 | 40 | 42.2 | 49 | 50.0 | 37 | 38.0 | 42 | 42.9 | 34 | 33.3 |
04/29/2022 | 53 | 63.4 | 39 | 40.6 | 54 | 61.6 | 42 | 42.9 | 51 | 53.1 | 41 | 42.2 | 50 | 50.0 | 38 | 38.0 |
04/28/2022 | 45 | 42.9 | 36 | 32.9 | 47 | 63.4 | 37 | 40.6 | 54 | 61.6 | 41 | 42.9 | 47 | 53.1 | 39 | 42.2 |
Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
Net | -2.4 | -0.7 | -2.7 | -0.3 | -2.4 | -0.1 | -2.8 | -0.3 | ||||||||
MAE | 2.8 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | ||||||||
RMS | 3.9 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 4.3 | ||||||||
Goal % | 66.7 | 56.7 | 44.8 | 58.6 | 64.3 | 53.6 | 48.1 | 55.6 |
Updated every day at 9:03AM ET
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
- Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18