Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
11/18/2018	27	22.0	21		27		16		27		20		24		17
11/17/2018	26	25.0	14	7.1	28	22.0	20		27		15		25		21
11/16/2018	35	35.2	25	22.5	26	25.0	15	7.1	26	22.0	18		23		15
11/15/2018	38	38.6	30	30.9	36	35.2	25	22.5	27	25.0	16	7.1	25	22.0	18
11/14/2018	30	29.0	24	23.0	38	38.6	30	30.9	37	35.2	26	22.5	28	25.0	18	7.1
11/13/2018	22	20.8	18	15.5	30	29.0	25	23.0	39	38.6	30	30.9	37	35.2	26	22.5
11/12/2018	30	28.8	18	15.3	24	20.8	18	15.5	32	29.0	27	23.0	40	38.6	31	30.9
11/11/2018	30	28.1	25	25.0	29	28.8	18	15.3	23	20.8	17	15.5	30	29.0	26	23.0
11/10/2018	28	26.4	22	16.3	31	28.1	26	25.0	32	28.8	20	15.3	25	20.8	18	15.5
11/09/2018	32	29.2	25	23.4	26	26.4	22	16.3	33	28.1	26	25.0	33	28.8	22	15.3
11/08/2018	33	33.3	29	26.3	33	29.2	30	23.4	30	26.4	22	16.3	33	28.1	26	25.0
11/07/2018	37	40.6	29	29.6	34	33.3	27	26.3	33	29.2	25	23.4	31	26.4	24	16.3
11/06/2018	44	45.7	36	36.2	39	40.6	29	29.6	35	33.3	27	26.3	32	29.2	23	23.4
11/05/2018	47	50.1	38	36.2	44	45.7	36	36.2	40	40.6	31	29.6	35	33.3	25	26.3
11/04/2018	41	41.3	39	35.8	46	50.1	38	36.2	42	45.7	35	36.2	39	40.6	31	29.6
11/03/2018	39	41.3	32	31.6	42	41.3	40	35.8	46	50.1	38	36.2	42	45.7	36	36.2
11/02/2018	40	40.1	33	35.0	40	41.3	33	31.6	44	41.3	41	35.8	47	50.1	39	36.2
11/01/2018	42	43.4	33	33.7	41	40.1	33	35.0	41	41.3	34	31.6	44	41.3	40	35.8
10/31/2018	49	48.8	36	32.5	42	43.4	34	33.7	42	40.1	34	35.0	40	41.3	32	31.6
10/30/2018	48	51.7	39	38.2	47	48.8	35	32.5	43	43.4	34	33.7	41	40.1	32	35.0
10/29/2018	46	47.1	39	37.8	48	51.7	39	38.2	48	48.8	36	32.5	43	43.4	33	33.7
10/28/2018	42	41.8	38	40.2	46	47.1	40	37.8	49	51.7	38	38.2	47	48.8	35	32.5
10/27/2018	45	45.4	40	39.4	44	41.8	38	40.2	47	47.1	41	37.8	50	51.7	38	38.2
10/26/2018	46	46.1	40	39.9	46	45.4	39	39.4	43	41.8	38	40.2	46	47.1	38	37.8
10/25/2018	50	47.9	42	42.6	46	46.1	39	39.9	44	45.4	38	39.4	43	41.8	34	40.2
10/24/2018	44	43.1	36	33.5	48	47.9	40	42.6	44	46.1	39	39.9	45	45.4	38	39.4
10/23/2018	40	41.9	34	33.6	40	43.1	32	33.5	46	47.9	39	42.6	45	46.1	40	39.9
10/22/2018	55	58.6	38	38.2	40	41.9	33	33.6	40	43.1	30	33.5	45	47.9	36	42.6
10/21/2018	44	41.8	33	29.7	53	58.6	37	38.2	41	41.9	34	33.6	41	43.1	31	33.5
10/20/2018	37	39.0	30	32.5	42	41.8	32	29.7	52	58.6	37	38.2	40	41.9	31	33.6
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-0.2		1.2		-0.1		1.2		0.3		1.2		0.5		0.8
MAE	1.6		1.8		1.8		2.2		2.3		2.4		2.2		2.8
RMS	2		2.4		2.4		2.8		2.8		3.1		2.6		3.9
Goal %	83.3		82.8		75.9		85.7		67.9		63.0		77.8		73.1

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18