Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
03/23/2023 | 34 | 35.9 | 18 | 40 | 23 | 34 | 30 | 35 | 24 | |||||||
03/22/2023 | 43 | 41.0 | 28 | 30.4 | 34 | 35.9 | 17 | 39 | 24 | 35 | 30 | |||||
03/21/2023 | 32 | 30.6 | 28 | 28.5 | 42 | 41.0 | 28 | 30.4 | 32 | 35.9 | 22 | 39 | 25 | |||
03/20/2023 | 29 | 30.9 | 17 | 12.7 | 32 | 30.6 | 27 | 28.5 | 41 | 41.0 | 29 | 30.4 | 34 | 35.9 | 23 | |
03/19/2023 | 38 | 42.7 | 24 | 25.8 | 29 | 30.9 | 20 | 12.7 | 32 | 30.6 | 28 | 28.5 | 42 | 41.0 | 32 | 30.4 |
03/18/2023 | 22 | 21.4 | 21 | 17.3 | 38 | 42.7 | 25 | 25.8 | 31 | 30.9 | 24 | 12.7 | 32 | 30.6 | 29 | 28.5 |
03/17/2023 | 30 | 29.3 | 15 | 13.3 | 23 | 21.4 | 19 | 17.3 | 36 | 42.7 | 22 | 25.8 | 34 | 30.9 | 26 | 12.7 |
03/16/2023 | 39 | 43.4 | 24 | 25.6 | 29 | 29.3 | 18 | 13.3 | 23 | 21.4 | 20 | 17.3 | 36 | 42.7 | 22 | 25.8 |
03/15/2023 | 40 | 46.8 | 35 | 34.1 | 38 | 43.4 | 25 | 25.6 | 30 | 29.3 | 18 | 13.3 | 24 | 21.4 | 19 | 17.3 |
03/14/2023 | 29 | 29.3 | 21 | 22.2 | 41 | 46.8 | 34 | 34.1 | 36 | 43.4 | 25 | 25.6 | 28 | 29.3 | 19 | 13.3 |
03/13/2023 | 23 | 21.8 | 22 | 20.0 | 28 | 29.3 | 20 | 22.2 | 41 | 46.8 | 34 | 34.1 | 39 | 43.4 | 28 | 25.6 |
03/12/2023 | 28 | 29.1 | 22 | 20.7 | 24 | 21.8 | 24 | 20.0 | 28 | 29.3 | 19 | 22.2 | 39 | 46.8 | 35 | 34.1 |
03/11/2023 | 27 | 26.6 | 23 | 23.8 | 30 | 29.1 | 22 | 20.7 | 25 | 21.8 | 21 | 20.0 | 28 | 29.3 | 19 | 22.2 |
03/10/2023 | 28 | 27.9 | 25 | 24.0 | 28 | 26.6 | 24 | 23.8 | 30 | 29.1 | 23 | 20.7 | 25 | 21.8 | 21 | 20.0 |
03/09/2023 | 32 | 32.5 | 25 | 27.0 | 28 | 27.9 | 26 | 24.0 | 28 | 26.6 | 24 | 23.8 | 31 | 29.1 | 24 | 20.7 |
03/08/2023 | 34 | 35.7 | 24 | 26.2 | 30 | 32.5 | 25 | 27.0 | 27 | 27.9 | 22 | 24.0 | 28 | 26.6 | 21 | 23.8 |
03/07/2023 | 35 | 36.4 | 20 | 16.2 | 32 | 35.7 | 29 | 26.2 | 30 | 32.5 | 25 | 27.0 | 28 | 27.9 | 24 | 24.0 |
03/06/2023 | 33 | 33.7 | 24 | 23.4 | 34 | 36.4 | 23 | 16.2 | 31 | 35.7 | 25 | 26.2 | 30 | 32.5 | 26 | 27.0 |
03/05/2023 | 39 | 39.9 | 29 | 29.6 | 34 | 33.7 | 29 | 23.4 | 33 | 36.4 | 24 | 16.2 | 30 | 35.7 | 23 | 26.2 |
03/04/2023 | 39 | 38.0 | 25 | 26.4 | 34 | 39.9 | 30 | 29.6 | 35 | 33.7 | 28 | 23.4 | 31 | 36.4 | 24 | 16.2 |
03/03/2023 | 36 | 37.3 | 26 | 25.2 | 38 | 38.0 | 24 | 26.4 | 38 | 39.9 | 30 | 29.6 | 36 | 33.7 | 29 | 23.4 |
03/02/2023 | 26 | 26.6 | 17 | 16.9 | 39 | 37.3 | 26 | 25.2 | 37 | 38.0 | 25 | 26.4 | 39 | 39.9 | 30 | 29.6 |
03/01/2023 | 31 | 32.3 | 21 | 22.9 | 26 | 26.6 | 16 | 16.9 | 35 | 37.3 | 24 | 25.2 | 36 | 38.0 | 27 | 26.4 |
02/28/2023 | 38 | 41.6 | 20 | 22.3 | 30 | 32.3 | 21 | 22.9 | 25 | 26.6 | 13 | 16.9 | 31 | 37.3 | 19 | 25.2 |
02/27/2023 | 30 | 29.0 | 27 | 23.2 | 38 | 41.6 | 25 | 22.3 | 31 | 32.3 | 20 | 22.9 | 24 | 26.6 | 11 | 16.9 |
02/26/2023 | 28 | 22.9 | 18 | 11.2 | 31 | 29.0 | 26 | 23.2 | 37 | 41.6 | 25 | 22.3 | 32 | 32.3 | 16 | 22.9 |
02/25/2023 | 26 | 30.2 | 16 | 16.6 | 26 | 22.9 | 17 | 11.2 | 31 | 29.0 | 26 | 23.2 | 36 | 41.6 | 25 | 22.3 |
02/24/2023 | 18 | 17.5 | 9 | 6.8 | 27 | 30.2 | 18 | 16.6 | 28 | 22.9 | 18 | 11.2 | 30 | 29.0 | 25 | 23.2 |
02/23/2023 | 19 | 19.8 | 8 | 8.7 | 16 | 17.5 | 14 | 6.8 | 27 | 30.2 | 16 | 16.6 | 29 | 22.9 | 18 | 11.2 |
02/22/2023 | 21 | 20.6 | 20 | 17.2 | 18 | 19.8 | 8 | 8.7 | 16 | 17.5 | 8 | 6.8 | 27 | 30.2 | 15 | 16.6 |
02/21/2023 | 26 | 26.3 | 16 | 14.7 | 23 | 20.6 | 15 | 17.2 | 18 | 19.8 | 8 | 8.7 | 16 | 17.5 | 8 | 6.8 |
Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
Net | -0.8 | 0.6 | -1.0 | 1.4 | -1.3 | 0.8 | -1.3 | 0.8 | ||||||||
MAE | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.4 | ||||||||
RMS | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.5 | ||||||||
Goal % | 80.6 | 83.3 | 73.3 | 75.9 | 65.5 | 71.4 | 60.7 | 55.6 |
Updated every day at 9:03AM ET
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
- Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18
(Auto night: 9:11 PM - 6:40 AM)