Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
11/28/2020	44		32		38		24		28		24		32		26
11/27/2020	37	37.3	27	28.1	42		32		38		24		29		24
11/26/2020	41	41.6	29	30.2	36	37.3	28	28.1	42		32		38		24
11/25/2020	38	37.2	33	33.1	42	41.6	30	30.2	36	37.3	28	28.1	41		31
11/24/2020	36	33.3	33	32.4	39	37.2	34	33.1	42	41.6	32	30.2	37	37.3	28	28.1
11/23/2020	27	30.9	24	21.7	36	33.3	33	32.4	39	37.2	33	33.1	41	41.6	31	30.2
11/22/2020	38	39.3	28	28.5	30	30.9	27	21.7	36	33.3	32	32.4	39	37.2	31	33.1
11/21/2020	33	37.5	25	26.7	39	39.3	28	28.5	32	30.9	24	21.7	36	33.3	32	32.4
11/20/2020	39	40.0	24	30.0	34	37.5	27	26.7	38	39.3	27	28.5	31	30.9	25	21.7
11/19/2020	50	49.3	36	37.8	40	40.0	27	30.0	33	37.5	25	26.7	37	39.3	27	28.5
11/18/2020	41	42.6	36	40.0	50	49.3	36	37.8	41	40.0	28	30.0	35	37.5	29	26.7
11/17/2020	29	29.4	20	23.1	40	42.6	37	40.0	49	49.3	36	37.8	41	40.0	32	30.0
11/16/2020	34	32.0	25	22.8	29	29.4	27	23.1	40	42.6	36	40.0	48	49.3	35	37.8
11/15/2020	42	41.8	28	28.6	34	32.0	24	22.8	30	29.4	23	23.1	39	42.6	35	40.0
11/14/2020	43	41.7	37	37.2	40	41.8	28	28.6	36	32.0	24	22.8	30	29.4	23	23.1
11/13/2020	32	30.2	25	24.1	43	41.7	37	37.2	40	41.8	29	28.6	35	32.0	24	22.8
11/12/2020	45	48.2	29	28.5	34	30.2	26	24.1	43	41.7	37	37.2	43	41.8	28	28.6
11/11/2020	37	34.6	30	30.9	47	48.2	29	28.5	34	30.2	26	24.1	40	41.7	34	37.2
11/10/2020	44	41.3	32	32.1	39	34.6	31	30.9	45	48.2	29	28.5	35	30.2	25	24.1
11/09/2020	69	73.1	45	38.1	49	41.3	33	32.1	41	34.6	33	30.9	44	48.2	28	28.5
11/08/2020	72	71.4	57	55.1	69	73.1	44	38.1	49	41.3	31	32.1	39	34.6	31	30.9
11/07/2020	68	73.0	52	46.4	72	71.4	56	55.1	66	73.1	43	38.1	50	41.3	32	32.1
11/06/2020	69	78.2	50	56.3	67	73.0	50	46.4	70	71.4	55	55.1	63	73.1	42	38.1
11/05/2020	56	60.1	42	41.6	69	78.2	51	56.3	67	73.0	50	46.4	63	71.4	54	55.1
11/04/2020	68	74.1	47	47.5	53	60.1	40	41.6	62	78.2	49	56.3	59	73.0	48	46.4
11/03/2020	59	63.3	42	43.6	60	74.1	46	47.5	55	60.1	43	41.6	59	78.2	48	56.3
11/02/2020	46	53.2	35	35.0	54	63.3	40	43.6	57	74.1	44	47.5	58	60.1	44	41.6
11/01/2020	33	30.5	27	22.5	45	53.2	34	35.0	50	63.3	40	43.6	58	74.1	44	47.5
10/31/2020	46	49.5	30	27.1	34	30.5	27	22.5	44	53.2	34	35.0	50	63.3	42	43.6
10/30/2020	36	37.6	28	28.9	46	49.5	31	27.1	34	30.5	27	22.5	41	53.2	32	35.0
10/29/2020	34	33.6	27	27.7	36	37.6	25	28.9	45	49.5	30	27.1	33	30.5	24	22.5
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.5		-0.1		-1.6		0.3		-2.2		0.0		-3.0		-0.5
MAE	2.7		2.0		3.6		2.1		4.6		2.0		5.3		2.0
RMS	3.4		2.8		4.9		2.7		6.4		2.6		7.5		2.7
Goal %	63.3		76.7		55.2		69.0		46.4		75.0		55.6		77.8

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18