Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy
Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures
| Goal: +/- 3°F | Forecast Day | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | |||||||||
| Date | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
| 09/11/2024 | 83 | 82.0 | 63 | 81 | 60 | 80 | 62 | 78 | 62 | |||||||
| 09/10/2024 | 77 | 79.5 | 58 | 64.6 | 82 | 82.0 | 62 | 80 | 60 | 81 | 62 | |||||
| 09/09/2024 | 70 | 67.6 | 57 | 54.5 | 82 | 79.5 | 62 | 64.6 | 82 | 82.0 | 61 | 82 | 61 | |||
| 09/08/2024 | 71 | 73.5 | 56 | 57.9 | 71 | 67.6 | 57 | 54.5 | 81 | 79.5 | 62 | 64.6 | 83 | 82.0 | 62 | |
| 09/07/2024 | 55 | 57.1 | 46 | 48.8 | 70 | 73.5 | 57 | 57.9 | 72 | 67.6 | 58 | 54.5 | 82 | 79.5 | 63 | 64.6 |
| 09/06/2024 | 54 | 53.3 | 45 | 49.0 | 56 | 57.1 | 50 | 48.8 | 73 | 73.5 | 58 | 57.9 | 76 | 67.6 | 60 | 54.5 |
| 09/05/2024 | 66 | 66.3 | 51 | 49.8 | 53 | 53.3 | 47 | 49.0 | 58 | 57.1 | 47 | 48.8 | 70 | 73.5 | 56 | 57.9 |
| 09/04/2024 | 79 | 79.5 | 61 | 61.1 | 68 | 66.3 | 51 | 49.8 | 52 | 53.3 | 47 | 49.0 | 55 | 57.1 | 48 | 48.8 |
| 09/03/2024 | 76 | 77.4 | 58 | 59.7 | 82 | 79.5 | 62 | 61.1 | 76 | 66.3 | 53 | 49.8 | 58 | 53.3 | 47 | 49.0 |
| 09/02/2024 | 70 | 71.9 | 55 | 54.9 | 75 | 77.4 | 59 | 59.7 | 79 | 79.5 | 61 | 61.1 | 72 | 66.3 | 52 | 49.8 |
| 09/01/2024 | 66 | 68.4 | 52 | 51.1 | 70 | 71.9 | 55 | 54.9 | 78 | 77.4 | 60 | 59.7 | 79 | 79.5 | 60 | 61.1 |
| 08/31/2024 | 83 | 84.6 | 58 | 57.1 | 65 | 68.4 | 51 | 51.1 | 72 | 71.9 | 54 | 54.9 | 76 | 77.4 | 60 | 59.7 |
| 08/30/2024 | 76 | 78.2 | 63 | 64.1 | 83 | 84.6 | 57 | 57.1 | 64 | 68.4 | 50 | 51.1 | 71 | 71.9 | 50 | 54.9 |
| 08/29/2024 | 73 | 75.0 | 63 | 65.9 | 77 | 78.2 | 62 | 64.1 | 79 | 84.6 | 58 | 57.1 | 65 | 68.4 | 50 | 51.1 |
| 08/28/2024 | 64 | 66.2 | 54 | 51.5 | 73 | 75.0 | 62 | 65.9 | 77 | 78.2 | 61 | 64.1 | 77 | 84.6 | 57 | 57.1 |
| 08/27/2024 | 73 | 77.1 | 59 | 61.4 | 64 | 66.2 | 56 | 51.5 | 74 | 75.0 | 63 | 65.9 | 77 | 78.2 | 61 | 64.1 |
| 08/26/2024 | 87 | 88.3 | 67 | 69.0 | 75 | 77.1 | 59 | 61.4 | 65 | 66.2 | 56 | 51.5 | 74 | 75.0 | 61 | 65.9 |
| 08/25/2024 | 83 | 86.8 | 67 | 72.4 | 87 | 88.3 | 67 | 69.0 | 75 | 77.1 | 60 | 61.4 | 66 | 66.2 | 56 | 51.5 |
| 08/24/2024 | 75 | 76.8 | 63 | 62.7 | 84 | 86.8 | 67 | 72.4 | 86 | 88.3 | 67 | 69.0 | 79 | 77.1 | 60 | 61.4 |
| 08/23/2024 | 76 | 74.4 | 64 | 63.2 | 78 | 76.8 | 63 | 62.7 | 83 | 86.8 | 67 | 72.4 | 85 | 88.3 | 65 | 69.0 |
| 08/22/2024 | 75 | 76.1 | 60 | 62.0 | 77 | 74.4 | 65 | 63.2 | 80 | 76.8 | 64 | 62.7 | 82 | 86.8 | 66 | 72.4 |
| 08/21/2024 | 70 | 70.3 | 52 | 54.3 | 75 | 76.1 | 62 | 62.0 | 76 | 74.4 | 64 | 63.2 | 80 | 76.8 | 64 | 62.7 |
| 08/20/2024 | 64 | 66.2 | 48 | 52.8 | 71 | 70.3 | 54 | 54.3 | 77 | 76.1 | 63 | 62.0 | 78 | 74.4 | 63 | 63.2 |
| 08/19/2024 | 67 | 66.2 | 53 | 48.6 | 68 | 66.2 | 50 | 52.8 | 73 | 70.3 | 56 | 54.3 | 78 | 76.1 | 62 | 62.0 |
| 08/18/2024 | 70 | 66.3 | 58 | 58.9 | 69 | 66.2 | 54 | 48.6 | 68 | 66.2 | 52 | 52.8 | 77 | 70.3 | 59 | 54.3 |
| 08/17/2024 | 69 | 66.7 | 62 | 61.7 | 71 | 66.3 | 60 | 58.9 | 70 | 66.2 | 55 | 48.6 | 70 | 66.2 | 54 | 52.8 |
| 08/16/2024 | 74 | 75.6 | 64 | 64.7 | 69 | 66.7 | 63 | 61.7 | 71 | 66.3 | 59 | 58.9 | 69 | 66.2 | 55 | 48.6 |
| 08/15/2024 | 78 | 84.8 | 64 | 64.2 | 73 | 75.6 | 63 | 64.7 | 71 | 66.7 | 62 | 61.7 | 71 | 66.3 | 59 | 58.9 |
| 08/14/2024 | 80 | 81.0 | 64 | 62.5 | 75 | 84.8 | 64 | 64.2 | 73 | 75.6 | 62 | 64.7 | 72 | 66.7 | 61 | 61.7 |
| 08/13/2024 | 77 | 80.5 | 59 | 61.2 | 82 | 81.0 | 63 | 62.5 | 76 | 84.8 | 64 | 64.2 | 69 | 75.6 | 62 | 64.7 |
| Errors | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act | NWS | Act |
| Net | -1.2 | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.2 | -0.1 | 0.7 | -0.4 | ||||||||
| MAE | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 2.4 | ||||||||
| RMS | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.2 | ||||||||
| Goal % | 83.3 | 82.8 | 82.8 | 85.7 | 64.3 | 77.8 | 44.4 | 65.4 | ||||||||
Updated every day at 9:03AM ET
NOTES:
- Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
- Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
- MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
- Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
- In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
- Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
- Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
- Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18
(Auto night: 9:13 PM - 6:18 AM)