Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
01/23/2020	33	32.9	31		33		32		34		30		34		28
01/22/2020	34	31.5	30	29.6	32	32.9	31		34		32		34		29
01/21/2020	29	31.1	21	20.5	33	31.5	31	29.6	34	32.9	31		34		30
01/20/2020	25	24.9	10	7.5	28	31.1	22	20.5	34	31.5	32	29.6	35	32.9	30
01/19/2020	24	23.9	16	13.6	23	24.9	15	7.5	28	31.1	23	20.5	33	31.5	32	29.6
01/18/2020	28	27.1	23	21.4	24	23.9	21	13.6	23	24.9	14	7.5	26	31.1	20	20.5
01/17/2020	23	23.6	22	22.0	30	27.1	20	21.4	24	23.9	14	13.6	21	24.9	11	7.5
01/16/2020	19	18.7	5	9.6	24	23.6	23	22.0	30	27.1	18	21.4	21	23.9	10	13.6
01/15/2020	28	29.5	15	15.0	18	18.7	7	9.6	25	23.6	23	22.0	30	27.1	17	21.4
01/14/2020	34	34.3	23	26.5	28	29.5	16	15.0	20	18.7	7	9.6	23	23.6	19	22.0
01/13/2020	29	28.1	26	25.6	35	34.3	23	26.5	27	29.5	16	15.0	20	18.7	9	9.6
01/12/2020	19	20.8	14	16.6	29	28.1	25	25.6	34	34.3	25	26.5	28	29.5	14	15.0
01/11/2020	18	18.2	16	17.0	19	20.8	14	16.6	27	28.1	24	25.6	35	34.3	24	26.5
01/10/2020	29	31.9	14	15.7	19	18.2	16	17.0	19	20.8	13	16.6	24	28.1	19	25.6
01/09/2020	35	35.1	27	29.2	29	31.9	15	15.7	19	18.2	16	17.0	20	20.8	15	16.6
01/08/2020	15	11.9	10	3.8	34	35.1	33	29.2	30	31.9	17	15.7	20	18.2	13	17.0
01/07/2020	31	31.4	10	7.4	14	11.9	10	3.8	36	35.1	24	29.2	28	31.9	15	15.7
01/06/2020	31	31.5	25	23.9	29	31.4	9	7.4	14	11.9	10	3.8	35	35.1	27	29.2
01/05/2020	32	30.8	23	24.2	32	31.5	22	23.9	27	31.4	10	7.4	16	11.9	11	3.8
01/04/2020	29	30.3	22	24.5	32	30.8	23	24.2	30	31.5	19	23.9	25	31.4	12	7.4
01/03/2020	29	30.4	23	25.9	28	30.3	21	24.5	31	30.8	23	24.2	27	31.5	17	23.9
01/02/2020	37	38.4	25	28.7	30	30.4	23	25.9	28	30.3	20	24.5	29	30.8	23	24.2
01/01/2020	29	27.7	28	24.9	37	38.4	27	28.7	31	30.4	24	25.9	28	30.3	20	24.5
12/31/2019	28	25.0	17	8.8	28	27.7	24	24.9	37	38.4	32	28.7	35	30.4	25	25.9
12/30/2019	34	33.6	27	23.4	29	25.0	17	8.8	27	27.7	23	24.9	36	38.4	31	28.7
12/29/2019	37	35.6	34	32.3	34	33.6	28	23.4	31	25.0	21	8.8	30	27.7	24	24.9
12/28/2019	37	35.7	33	32.0	39	35.6	35	32.3	37	33.6	27	23.4	31	25.0	22	8.8
12/27/2019	33	34.5	22	21.9	35	35.7	32	32.0	39	35.6	34	32.3	36	33.6	26	23.4
12/26/2019	40	39.6	30	33.2	34	34.5	23	21.9	34	35.7	32	32.0	39	35.6	31	32.3
12/25/2019	37	35.4	35	33.6	40	39.6	30	33.2	34	34.5	25	21.9	37	35.7	34	32.0
12/24/2019	37	35.2	33	33.1	37	35.4	35	33.6	39	39.6	32	33.2	34	34.5	25	21.9
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	0.1		0.3		0.0		0.7		0.0		0.5		-0.2		-0.2
MAE	1.2		2.2		1.4		2.7		1.8		2.9		2.7		3.2
RMS	1.5		2.9		1.8		3.4		2.2		3.8		3.2		4.2
Goal %	96.8		73.3		90.0		69.0		82.8		60.7		64.3		59.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18