Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
07/05/2020	83		65		88		67		82		64		88		70
07/04/2020	85	86.3	62	66.9	84		66		88		67		83		65
07/03/2020	80	79.1	60	64.0	87	86.3	64	66.9	83		64		87		67
07/02/2020	83	85.2	63	64.8	82	79.1	62	64.0	88	86.3	63	66.9	81		64
07/01/2020	86	85.6	67	67.0	84	85.2	63	64.8	81	79.1	61	64.0	86	86.3	64	66.9
06/30/2020	87	90.8	64	69.5	86	85.6	68	67.0	83	85.2	64	64.8	83	79.1	65	64.0
06/29/2020	84	88.7	66	69.9	85	90.8	63	69.5	83	85.6	62	67.0	82	85.2	60	64.8
06/28/2020	81	75.6	60	60.1	82	88.7	64	69.9	85	90.8	64	69.5	85	85.6	62	67.0
06/27/2020	76	77.0	58	58.2	80	75.6	63	60.1	84	88.7	65	69.9	84	90.8	66	69.5
06/26/2020	81	88.4	60	66.9	76	77.0	57	58.2	80	75.6	59	60.1	80	88.7	64	69.9
06/25/2020	77	75.0	62	62.0	82	88.4	60	66.9	74	77.0	56	58.2	78	75.6	59	60.1
06/24/2020	71	71.5	49	60.2	73	75.0	58	62.0	79	88.4	59	66.9	74	77.0	56	58.2
06/23/2020	63	62.3	48	57.7	67	71.5	51	60.2	76	75.0	56	62.0	80	88.4	59	66.9
06/22/2020	66	70.8	50	53.3	67	62.3	51	57.7	65	71.5	51	60.2	72	75.0	54	62.0
06/21/2020	66	69.2	58	61.2	64	70.8	53	53.3	66	62.3	52	57.7	69	71.5	51	60.2
06/20/2020	60	62.0	54	50.6	69	69.2	58	61.2	73	70.8	54	53.3	67	62.3	52	57.7
06/19/2020	81	87.2	55	57.3	69	62.0	53	50.6	73	69.2	56	61.2	73	70.8	54	53.3
06/18/2020	87	89.5	64	67.7	75	87.2	56	57.3	68	62.0	53	50.6	71	69.2	55	61.2
06/17/2020	88	89.1	66	64.3	89	89.5	63	67.7	81	87.2	56	57.3	71	62.0	54	50.6
06/16/2020	81	88.1	64	59.0	90	89.1	65	64.3	90	89.5	64	67.7	81	87.2	58	57.3
06/15/2020	80	78.5	57	60.6	88	88.1	66	59.0	90	89.1	65	64.3	90	89.5	63	67.7
06/14/2020	66	67.4	47	51.6	75	78.5	55	60.6	85	88.1	64	59.0	92	89.1	65	64.3
06/13/2020	58	59.1	42	40.8	67	67.4	46	51.6	72	78.5	58	60.6	82	88.1	64	59.0
06/12/2020	51	50.5	36	41.1	59	59.1	42	40.8	66	67.4	47	51.6	73	78.5	57	60.6
06/11/2020	62	69.0	41	40.5	52	50.5	40	41.1	59	59.1	42	40.8	65	67.4	47	51.6
06/10/2020	71	77.2	48	51.8	63	69.0	41	40.5	50	50.5	41	41.1	55	59.1	42	40.8
06/09/2020	90	84.8	57	56.1	71	77.2	49	51.8	63	69.0	44	40.5	55	50.5	42	41.1
06/08/2020	90	90.8	64	71.6	87	84.8	58	56.1	68	77.2	51	51.8	63	69.0	45	40.5
06/07/2020	59	56.1	50	46.1	91	90.8	66	71.6	88	84.8	58	56.1	68	77.2	52	51.8
06/06/2020	57	55.6	41	39.9	64	56.1	53	46.1	91	90.8	68	71.6	89	84.8	57	56.1
06/05/2020	74	72.4	48	50.7	56	55.6	42	39.9	64	56.1	53	46.1	88	90.8	67	71.6
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.4		-2.3		-1.0		-1.7		-1.1		-2.0		-1.6		-2.2
MAE	2.9		3.5		3.3		3.6		3.7		3.6		4.3		3.7
RMS	3.7		4.4		4.5		4.3		4.6		4.3		5		4.4
Goal %	63.3		40.0		55.2		55.2		46.4		46.4		44.4		40.7

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18