Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
09/16/2021	77		62		69		51		68		55		84		65
09/15/2021	69	68.5	56	58.3	80		63		70		52		70		56
09/14/2021	66	66.8	54	55.2	68	68.5	55	58.3	76		60		71		54
09/13/2021	68	66.4	56	55.7	66	66.8	54	55.2	71	68.5	53	58.3	76		60
09/12/2021	64	62.4	50	49.1	67	66.4	54	55.7	69	66.8	55	55.2	70	68.5	54	58.3
09/11/2021	75	71.7	53	57.0	63	62.4	49	49.1	67	66.4	56	55.7	70	66.8	54	55.2
09/10/2021	73	76.7	63	61.4	71	71.7	54	57.0	64	62.4	50	49.1	65	66.4	54	55.7
09/09/2021	66	68.0	50	54.5	74	76.7	63	61.4	75	71.7	55	57.0	65	62.4	51	49.1
09/08/2021	64	63.2	54	52.7	65	68.0	48	54.5	74	76.7	62	61.4	78	71.7	55	57.0
09/07/2021	69	75.2	58	57.2	64	63.2	54	52.7	68	68.0	52	54.5	72	76.7	59	61.4
09/06/2021	68	67.6	57	57.8	69	75.2	57	57.2	65	63.2	56	52.7	66	68.0	53	54.5
09/05/2021	66	69.9	53	53.5	67	67.6	58	57.8	68	75.2	57	57.2	64	63.2	54	52.7
09/04/2021	66	66.7	57	58.0	67	69.9	54	53.5	70	67.6	57	57.8	66	75.2	56	57.2
09/03/2021	72	77.9	58	58.7	69	66.7	57	58.0	70	69.9	54	53.5	69	67.6	56	57.8
09/02/2021	71	71.3	55	58.6	71	77.9	59	58.7	71	66.7	58	58.0	70	69.9	55	53.5
09/01/2021	68	69.4	51	48.9	70	71.3	56	58.6	73	77.9	58	58.7	70	66.7	58	58.0
08/31/2021	68	67.7	53	55.2	71	69.4	51	48.9	74	71.3	58	58.6	70	77.9	59	58.7
08/30/2021	72	72.9	57	58.3	68	67.7	54	55.2	70	69.4	52	48.9	73	71.3	57	58.6
08/29/2021	79	83.3	62	62.8	72	72.9	57	58.3	70	67.7	56	55.2	70	69.4	53	48.9
08/28/2021	79	85.1	67	68.3	80	83.3	62	62.8	73	72.9	58	58.3	72	67.7	56	55.2
08/27/2021	67	66.1	63	61.8	83	85.1	68	68.3	79	83.3	62	62.8	73	72.9	57	58.3
08/26/2021	70	72.0	58	62.1	66	66.1	62	61.8	81	85.1	68	68.3	82	83.3	62	62.8
08/25/2021	77	82.8	58	61.3	68	72.0	56	62.1	64	66.1	61	61.8	80	85.1	68	68.3
08/24/2021	76	74.8	64	63.5	81	82.8	59	61.3	66	72.0	57	62.1	66	66.1	61	61.8
08/23/2021	85	87.6	64	62.6	76	74.8	66	63.5	81	82.8	61	61.3	70	72.0	60	62.1
08/22/2021	70	69.4	53	53.9	81	87.6	64	62.6	81	74.8	65	63.5	80	82.8	60	61.3
08/21/2021	83	88.3	59	60.8	69	69.4	56	53.9	84	87.6	63	62.6	80	74.8	64	63.5
08/20/2021	89	92.4	68	69.3	83	88.3	60	60.8	72	69.4	56	53.9	84	87.6	62	62.6
08/19/2021	88	84.4	70	72.6	90	92.4	68	69.3	84	88.3	60	60.8	70	69.4	58	53.9
08/18/2021	85	90.3	69	71.1	80	84.4	67	72.6	88	92.4	68	69.3	85	88.3	63	60.8
08/17/2021	88	87.1	66	65.6	87	90.3	67	71.1	87	84.4	67	72.6	87	92.4	67	69.3
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.5		-1.0		-1.8		-1.1		-0.3		-0.5		-0.6		-0.4
MAE	2.5		1.7		2.3		1.9		2.9		1.5		3.0		1.6
RMS	3.2		2		3		2.6		3.4		2.2		3.8		2
Goal %	60.0		83.3		72.4		82.8		60.7		82.1		55.6		88.9

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18