Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
09/19/2020	62		48		65		54		69		57		72		55
09/18/2020	53	55.0	38	42.2	60		48		64		54		68		56
09/17/2020	52	54.5	33	41.0	52	55.0	38	42.2	59		46		63		51
09/16/2020	63	63.6	38	43.4	52	54.5	38	41.0	54	55.0	40	42.2	59		47
09/15/2020	78	79.1	56	57.3	64	63.6	41	43.4	53	54.5	40	41.0	53	55.0	39	42.2
09/14/2020	60	58.1	53	53.0	77	79.1	58	57.3	62	63.6	43	43.4	53	54.5	40	41.0
09/13/2020	64	67.2	44	44.7	60	58.1	53	53.0	75	79.1	57	57.3	66	63.6	46	43.4
09/12/2020	61	61.2	56	56.1	63	67.2	47	44.7	60	58.1	50	53.0	73	79.1	58	57.3
09/11/2020	65	66.6	53	54.3	60	61.2	55	56.1	63	67.2	47	44.7	61	58.1	50	53.0
09/10/2020	59	57.8	44	45.0	67	66.6	52	54.3	62	61.2	54	56.1	63	67.2	46	44.7
09/09/2020	53	52.9	41	42.6	61	57.8	44	45.0	67	66.6	51	54.3	64	61.2	54	56.1
09/08/2020	52	54.4	46	47.6	52	52.9	41	42.6	62	57.8	46	45.0	66	66.6	53	54.3
09/07/2020	58	63.6	45	46.6	51	54.4	47	47.6	51	52.9	42	42.6	61	57.8	47	45.0
09/06/2020	69	74.7	50	52.8	57	63.6	47	46.6	51	54.4	46	47.6	52	52.9	47	42.6
09/05/2020	66	70.4	54	54.3	70	74.7	54	52.8	58	63.6	47	46.6	54	54.4	47	47.6
09/04/2020	64	66.8	50	52.0	66	70.4	53	54.3	71	74.7	58	52.8	63	63.6	52	46.6
09/03/2020	66	67.2	51	48.2	65	66.8	51	52.0	67	70.4	53	54.3	68	74.7	54	52.8
09/02/2020	72	73.5	57	56.3	68	67.2	52	48.2	65	66.8	52	52.0	67	70.4	53	54.3
09/01/2020	74	69.6	58	54.4	73	73.5	58	56.3	68	67.2	52	48.2	64	66.8	52	52.0
08/31/2020	69	69.9	50	53.0	75	69.6	59	54.4	74	73.5	60	56.3	70	67.2	52	48.2
08/30/2020	63	62.6	56	52.7	70	69.9	54	53.0	72	69.6	58	54.4	73	73.5	59	56.3
08/29/2020	64	65.1	55	56.5	66	62.6	56	52.7	73	69.9	54	53.0	72	69.6	57	54.4
08/28/2020	68	69.1	56	58.1	66	65.1	54	56.5	66	62.6	54	52.7	74	69.9	56	53.0
08/27/2020	72	73.7	57	60.1	68	69.1	58	58.1	65	65.1	53	56.5	66	62.6	56	52.7
08/26/2020	76	73.4	66	67.3	73	73.7	59	60.1	68	69.1	58	58.1	65	65.1	54	56.5
08/25/2020	72	74.8	60	58.7	76	73.4	66	67.3	72	73.7	59	60.1	69	69.1	58	58.1
08/24/2020	74	79.8	62	67.2	71	74.8	57	58.7	72	73.4	63	67.3	71	73.7	59	60.1
08/23/2020	75	75.3	64	65.7	77	79.8	61	67.2	70	74.8	59	58.7	75	73.4	63	67.3
08/22/2020	80	77.5	66	62.5	74	75.3	65	65.7	79	79.8	63	67.2	73	74.8	59	58.7
08/21/2020	74	71.6	65	62.4	77	77.5	64	62.5	73	75.3	60	65.7	77	79.8	62	67.2
08/20/2020	76	74.4	62	63.1	81	71.6	64	62.4	77	77.5	62	62.5	74	75.3	59	65.7
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.0		-1.1		-0.6		-0.3		-1.0		-0.5		-0.5		0.0
MAE	2.2		2.3		2.6		1.9		2.2		2.1		2.4		2.4
RMS	2.7		2.9		3.3		2.3		2.7		2.6		2.9		3
Goal %	80.0		73.3		65.5		82.8		64.3		67.9		74.1		70.4

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18