Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
03/07/2021	41	38.4	30		45		28		44		42		46		33
03/06/2021	28	27.0	10	12.2	40	38.4	36		47		30		51		41
03/05/2021	31	33.0	17	23.3	27	27.0	12	12.2	37	38.4	31		46		30
03/04/2021	24	26.9	16	18.5	30	33.0	16	23.3	32	27.0	17	12.2	40	38.4	33
03/03/2021	29	33.6	19	21.4	26	26.9	17	18.5	32	33.0	20	23.3	32	27.0	20	12.2
03/02/2021	40	45.5	25	29.9	30	33.6	19	21.4	28	26.9	19	18.5	32	33.0	23	23.3
03/01/2021	14	16.3	8	9.5	39	45.5	26	29.9	30	33.6	18	21.4	28	26.9	18	18.5
02/28/2021	32	32.4	10	10.7	16	16.3	7	9.5	37	45.5	28	29.9	37	33.6	22	21.4
02/27/2021	38	42.6	25	27.8	31	32.4	13	10.7	17	16.3	7	9.5	38	45.5	28	29.9
02/26/2021	39	44.2	30	28.9	38	42.6	26	27.8	33	32.4	14	10.7	19	16.3	11	9.5
02/25/2021	32	31.0	20	19.9	39	44.2	29	28.9	38	42.6	23	27.8	29	32.4	12	10.7
02/24/2021	31	31.4	15	13.5	26	31.0	24	19.9	36	44.2	30	28.9	38	42.6	20	27.8
02/23/2021	39	42.4	27	29.8	29	31.4	21	13.5	27	31.0	15	19.9	37	44.2	25	28.9
02/22/2021	37	40.9	30	36.6	38	42.4	25	29.8	29	31.4	13	13.5	25	31.0	14	19.9
02/21/2021	33	35.4	25	24.3	38	40.9	33	36.6	39	42.4	24	29.8	29	31.4	13	13.5
02/20/2021	25	24.6	12	13.5	31	35.4	21	24.3	37	40.9	32	36.6	39	42.4	23	29.8
02/19/2021	23	22.4	8	9.1	25	24.6	9	13.5	30	35.4	20	24.3	36	40.9	30	36.6
02/18/2021	24	22.9	14	14.2	22	22.4	7	9.1	23	24.6	8	13.5	29	35.4	18	24.3
02/17/2021	20	21.9	8	9.9	24	22.9	12	14.2	22	22.4	9	9.1	26	24.6	12	13.5
02/16/2021	15	16.4	2	3.0	21	21.9	10	9.9	24	22.9	14	14.2	24	22.4	10	9.1
02/15/2021	6	6.3	0	1.5	17	16.4	-1	3.0	22	21.9	9	9.9	24	22.9	12	14.2
02/14/2021	3	3.8	-7	-8.4	6	6.3	-4	1.5	16	16.4	1	3.0	21	21.9	10	9.9
02/13/2021	10	9.4	-4	-4.6	3	3.8	-7	-8.4	8	6.3	-3	1.5	15	16.4	2	3.0
02/12/2021	13	12.4	2	0.9	11	9.4	-2	-4.6	5	3.8	-6	-8.4	10	6.3	-2	1.5
02/11/2021	12	13.6	4	5.8	12	12.4	0	0.9	12	9.4	-4	-4.6	6	3.8	-4	-8.4
02/10/2021	7	11.2	-1	-1.6	12	13.6	4	5.8	13	12.4	0	0.9	11	9.4	3	-4.6
02/09/2021	9	9.8	-5	-2.8	11	11.2	-1	-1.6	12	13.6	2	5.8	10	12.4	0	0.9
02/08/2021	9	7.4	-9	-6.4	9	9.8	-3	-2.8	11	11.2	0	-1.6	11	13.6	2	5.8
02/07/2021	6	6.2	-6	-5.6	9	7.4	-4	-6.4	9	9.8	-4	-2.8	9	11.2	0	-1.6
02/06/2021	11	10.5	-3	-7.7	6	6.2	-5	-5.6	9	7.4	-5	-6.4	5	9.8	-4	-2.8
02/05/2021	20	18.6	7	3.3	12	10.5	-4	-7.7	7	6.2	-6	-5.6	8	7.4	-9	-6.4
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.2		-1.0		-1.4		-0.9		-1.2		-1.4		-1.3		-1.2
MAE	1.9		2.1		2.0		2.7		2.4		2.5		3.1		3.1
RMS	2.5		2.7		2.6		3.3		3.2		3.1		3.7		4
Goal %	77.4		83.3		76.7		62.1		69.0		57.1		57.1		59.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18