Marquette Michigan Forecast Accuracy

Comparing forecasted temperatures (NWS) with actual (Act) temperatures

Goal: +/- 3°F	Forecast Day				+1 Day				+2 Day				+3 Day
Goal: +/- 3°F	High		Low		High		Low		High		Low		High		Low
Date	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
03/24/2019	32	33.2	15		40		17		46		30		53		39
03/23/2019	57	54.0	29	29.7	35	33.2	16		33		18		42		29
03/22/2019	32	30.2	18	20.3	54	54.0	30	29.7	37	33.2	16		31		17
03/21/2019	43	53.3	24	26.8	29	30.2	18	20.3	51	54.0	29	29.7	38	33.2	16
03/20/2019	41	43.4	29	32.5	45	53.3	24	26.8	30	30.2	19	20.3	44	54.0	30	29.7
03/19/2019	45	48.3	32	37.2	39	43.4	29	32.5	43	53.3	27	26.8	36	30.2	21	20.3
03/18/2019	36	38.2	21	27.2	41	48.3	31	37.2	40	43.4	29	32.5	42	53.3	29	26.8
03/17/2019	32	34.1	18	19.7	35	38.2	22	27.2	40	48.3	30	37.2	42	43.4	28	32.5
03/16/2019	28	30.0	16	17.9	31	34.1	17	19.7	34	38.2	21	27.2	40	48.3	26	37.2
03/15/2019	30	32.3	17	19.4	27	30.0	16	17.9	32	34.1	15	19.7	32	38.2	20	27.2
03/14/2019	47	48.8	27	29.1	31	32.3	18	19.4	27	30.0	16	17.9	33	34.1	16	19.7
03/13/2019	40	44.0	37	36.9	47	48.8	27	29.1	31	32.3	17	19.4	27	30.0	15	17.9
03/12/2019	40	48.7	33	35.2	41	44.0	35	36.9	46	48.8	27	29.1	32	32.3	17	19.4
03/11/2019	27	31.1	10	10.5	40	48.7	31	35.2	41	44.0	34	36.9	46	48.8	26	29.1
03/10/2019	32	34.1	18	21.2	27	31.1	13	10.5	36	48.7	29	35.2	40	44.0	33	36.9
03/09/2019	33	37.5	24	25.5	32	34.1	18	21.2	27	31.1	11	10.5	36	48.7	25	35.2
03/08/2019	29	28.5	14	14.1	33	37.5	25	25.5	31	34.1	19	21.2	28	31.1	13	10.5
03/07/2019	22	18.5	6	2.8	28	28.5	11	14.1	31	37.5	24	25.5	32	34.1	20	21.2
03/06/2019	16	17.2	4	7.6	21	18.5	7	2.8	28	28.5	10	14.1	32	37.5	24	25.5
03/05/2019	14	14.9	-3	-2.9	17	17.2	2	7.6	21	18.5	7	2.8	29	28.5	11	14.1
03/04/2019	10	9.7	1	-1.0	13	14.9	-4	-2.9	17	17.2	3	7.6	20	18.5	7	2.8
03/03/2019	9	9.8	-5	-7.5	9	9.7	1	-1.0	12	14.9	-1	-2.9	16	17.2	4	7.6
03/02/2019	22	24.7	-3	-3.7	10	9.8	-5	-7.5	9	9.7	0	-1.0	13	14.9	-1	-2.9
03/01/2019	23	24.4	10	15.6	22	24.7	2	-3.7	10	9.8	-5	-7.5	8	9.7	0	-1.0
02/28/2019	29	28.1	3	8.5	24	24.4	14	15.6	23	24.7	2	-3.7	10	9.8	-2	-7.5
02/27/2019	16	16.1	0	-0.7	26	28.1	8	8.5	23	24.4	14	15.6	21	24.7	1	-3.7
02/26/2019	11	10.5	5	6.7	18	16.1	3	-0.7	24	28.1	8	8.5	20	24.4	9	15.6
02/25/2019	10	11.5	-4	-2.1	10	10.5	4	6.7	19	16.1	4	-0.7	23	28.1	9	8.5
02/24/2019	30	30.0	3	3.6	7	11.5	-4	-2.1	11	10.5	4	6.7	20	16.1	6	-0.7
02/23/2019	31	31.0	29	28.7	30	30.0	1	3.6	9	11.5	-4	-2.1	12	10.5	2	6.7
Errors	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act	NWS	Act
Net	-1.6		-1.6		-2.2		-1.3		-2.6		-1.4		-2.7		-1.5
MAE	2.3		2.2		2.6		2.8		3.3		2.9		4.0		3.8
RMS	3.3		2.8		3.5		3.2		4.4		3.5		5.2		4.7
Goal %	76.7		72.4		69.0		64.3		64.3		63.0		48.1		42.3

Updated every day at 9:03AM ET

NOTES:

Negative "Net" errors indicate forecasted temps cooler than actual.
Root Mean Squared (RMS) method is more sensitive to large absolute errors.
MAE is the Mean Absolute Error or average error without respect to being negative or positive
Forecast goal is +/- 3 degrees Fahrenheit; goal percentage is how frequently in period goal was accomplished
In everything but goal percentage, lower is better.
Highs are measured from 6AM - 8PM (recorded at 8:02 PM); lows from 6PM - 9AM (recorded at 9:03 AM)
Empty cells represent future (main table) or non-applicable (error summary) data.
Weather Underground forecast collection ceased on 06/27/18