Would forecasts improve if we removed all the buildings, ripped out all the concrete and moved everyone to tents situated along Lakeshore Blvd? Short answer: likely.
Too often the forecasted high temperatures for Marquette run well below the measured high temperatures, especially on sunny days when the wind isn’t blowing off the lake. This is true of all forecast agencies I’ve observed to one degree or another. It just so happens the local National Weather Service, our forecast provider, is also guilty of this trend. Continue reading “Demolish Marquette to Improve Forecasts?”
The website’s featured forecast provider, Weather Underground (WU), announced a change in policy last month. They were no longer going to allow free, limited access to their raw forecast data (API). Instead, they would begin charging hundreds per month even to those who contribute data like we do. Since this site generates no revenue, the new price tag is a nonstarter.
I’ve been exploring alternatives in hopes of continuing to offer dual forecasts. None of them have met my requirements of accuracy and affordability. Therefore, I’ve decided the National Weather Service (NWS) will be the sole forecast provider for marquetteweather.com.
In addition, the hourly forecast will not be replaced due to problems inherent in the forecasting process. Presently, the software-based weather models do not adequately represent the transient effects of the Great Lakes frequently leading to significant errors exceeding our forecast target of +/- 3 degrees. Plus, the forecasts don’t update often enough to keep pace with our weather. Routine changes in wind direction, cloud cover or precipitation can transform conditions in a matter of minutes — as most Marquetters intuitively understand. Continue reading “What Happened To The Forecast?”