Yesterday, November 13th, the high was 21 (both here and at the official COOP station). The coldest high temperature on record for that day in Marquette was 20 set most recently in 1919 (tied with 1883 & 1900).
We’ve recorded 5 days in row with lows in the teens! Normal lows this time of year in the city are around 30. Normal highs are in the low 40s. So far we are running more than 6 degrees below normal for the first 14 days of November. That follows a cold October.
If the forecast holds, it looks like there will be a slight bump in temps today, tomorrow, and Friday, although still not quite “normal”. Then we drop right back into well below normal temps for the weekend and the beginning of next week.
The Trend for 2018?
It’s been an up and down year so far, but we are all but guaranteed to end the year below normal — barring a record setting December.* The question is by how much?
Let’s put this into the context of the past few years. In 2017 the yearly average temperature was 43.5 (when data is adjusted to match the same period of observation employed by the COOP station). That’s almost half a degree below normal.** 2016 was about 1.4 degrees above normal. We don’t have a complete data set for 2015; however, the official station reported 0.7 degrees below normal that year. Assuming our current trend of -6.1 degrees holds for November and December is completely normal, we would end 2018 about 1.7 degrees below normal. To end 2018 above normal would require November to completely erase it’s 6 degree deficit in the remaining 14 full days followed by a December that was 14+ degrees above normal!
* An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that we were likely to end 2018 well below normal for the year (-3.5 degrees potentially). After discovering an error in the supporting math, I have softened the prediction. Additionally, I have revised the calculation method to match the measurement period of the official COOP station (an observation period of 8AM – 8AM in which each month starts and ends at 8AM the last day of the month). Note that the average temperatures reported in the yearly table on our weather history page are calculated by calendar days and months. We can do that since our station is automated. Whereas the COOP station has manually observed daily temperatures once per day using a minimum-maximum thermometer (in the mornings since about 1960 and in the afternoons before that) for over 140 years!
** First we take the normal yearly average temperature over the last 30 years as measured at the Waste Water Treatment Plant, the official weather station for Marquette, which is 43.1. Then we determined the average difference between our station and the official station for every month of the year since August 2015 (listed in our weather history “normals” table under the “Depart” heading). That averages out to +0.76F. Or, put simply, 43.1 + 0.76 = 43.86 which rounds to 43.9. This preliminary number will improve over time as we collect more data.
We’ve received 3.11″ of rain at our location just north of the Vet’s Home since midnight. That’s an all-time record for our station.
Unfortunately, our automated rain gauge had some issues overnight and missed 1 full inch of rain. Yikes! Normally, it is pretty accurate. For the last two big rainfalls (on 9/1 and 8/27) it read within a few percent of our reference gauge. I’ve now inspected the tipping bucket, cleaned it out (the cups were pretty dirty), and returned it to service. I’ll keep an eye on it.
For today (9/5), I’ve overridden the automatic gauge with the manual measurement. You’ll see the wrong value in the stats graph at the top of the stats page. The precipitation tables further down the page should be correct, though.
How big was that rain event? It looks like Marquette set a new daily rainfall record for September 5th for the 24 hours ending at 7AM this morning. The official COOP station at the Water Treatment Plant on Lakeshore Dr. reported 3.41″ during that time. The old record was 1.3″ set in 2007. By comparison, for the 24 hours ending at 8AM this morning, we measured 3.29″.
Marquette has seen even greater rainfall in its history. On September 29, 1881, 4.44″ fell!
Altogether since August 27th, we’ve recorded 7.51″ of rain! I don’t know if that’s a record stretch for the city, but it sure knocks my socks off!
We took a small amount of water into our basement. Nothing serious, though. Apparently, we aren’t alone as there are reports around town of basement flooding. Let us know in the comments if you’ve been affected by all this rain we’ve had.
Would forecasts improve if we removed all the buildings, ripped out all the concrete and moved everyone to tents situated along Lakeshore Blvd? Short answer: likely.
Too often the forecasted high temperatures for Marquette run well below the measured high temperatures, especially on sunny days when the wind isn’t blowing off the lake. This is true of all forecast agencies I’ve observed to one degree or another. It just so happens the local National Weather Service, our forecast provider, is also guilty of this trend. Continue reading “Demolish Marquette to Improve Forecasts?”
So perhaps you’ve noticed lately on sunny days forecasted highs have been lower than the actual highs by several degrees. Well… it turns out that’s not entirely true.
During the deepest part of winter when the polar vortex was regularly occurring (late December into January), we were having equipment issues. Normally, we measure temperatures inside an enclosure that has a fan running on solar power during the day and batteries at night. Unfortunately, the weather destroyed the electronics that controlled the battery charging, among other casualties.
As a quick fix, we installed a passive (fan-less) shield for our sensor. Passive shelters are fine during our normally very cloudy, windy winters. Wouldn’t you know it, the sun decided to show up and, along with it, gentle breezes! That makes for beautiful winter days in Marquette. It is also a recipe for solar-induced sensor errors.
The snow acts like a mirror to the sun and the reflected radiation gets into the sensor and heats it up. How much? A rough estimate, based on before and after tests of running with and without a fan, is 3-5 degrees F. Studies have shown that, in fact, on completely calm, sunny days over a fresh blanket of snow, errors can reach up to 18 deg F! Continue reading “Temperature Readings Just Improved!”
How about the mornings where town is 20 or 30 degrees warmer than nearby locations?
Ice forming on the lake, partially cutting off cloud formation, seems to be helping brighten the long winter. In time, we may be joining the subzero parade once the lake gives off the last of its heat.
Looks like a very nice weekend ahead if you don’t mind slightly below normal temps.
The following weekend it may be TOO warm (near freezing). I hear the sled doggies (UP 200) like it a bit colder. Like below zero. Anyone know if that’s true?
How would you rate this winter so far?
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