You may have seen the widely circulated story that the local National Weather Service office has measured over 200 inches of snow this season as of Monday morning, February 25th. Unfortunately, some articles have explicitly assigned the total to Marquette. Others have allowed readers to conclude that this is a representative total for the area. In fact, the NWS office is located well outside of the city limits in the highlands which receive substantially more snow.
A helpful rule of thumb is that for every 100 ft you gain in elevation, you can expect 10 additional inches of yearly snowfall.* Of course, there are other factors, such as differing lake exposure, that come into play in the wider area. For this comparison, however, elevation is the key difference. So, given that the NWS office is 800 ft higher than the lakeshore of Marquette, that represents approximately 80″ of additional snowfall per year. In fact, that’s very close to the 30 year normals. Marquette normally receives close to 120″, and Negaunee Township gets a little over 200″ per year.
So far this season (October 1 – February 25) in Marquette, the city’s official NOAA COOP weather station has recorded 96.3″. That’s less than HALF the amount the NWS office received. Just a mile away from the COOP station at our location, 3 blocks south of downtown, we recorded 108″ in that period. We are about 100 ft higher than the COOP station, which explains why we’ve had a bit more snow. To be more than fair, I would allow for an additional foot or so lost to high winds this winter at our station (which would give us about 120″).
So, in other words, both Marquette and Negaunee Twp have received something close to their normal seasonal totals thru the end of February. That would be the proper way to frame a story if, indeed, you were writing about Marquette.
Continue reading “200″ of snow in Marquette? Not even close.”
I wrote about this yesterday on Twitter. Given the limitations of that platform, however, I couldn’t really go deep. Let’s dive in.
Here are two screenshots taken within 60 seconds yesterday afternoon:
The 1st image is of a popular weather app recently redesigned for the iPhone. The 2nd image is our universal web app loaded in Safari on an iPhone.*
Continue reading “When Weather Apps Fail at Weather”
Would forecasts improve if we removed all the buildings, ripped out all the concrete and moved everyone to tents situated along Lakeshore Blvd? Short answer: likely.
Too often the forecasted high temperatures for Marquette run well below the measured high temperatures, especially on sunny days when the wind isn’t blowing off the lake. This is true of all forecast agencies I’ve observed to one degree or another. It just so happens the local National Weather Service, our forecast provider, is also guilty of this trend. Continue reading “Demolish Marquette to Improve Forecasts?”
The website’s featured forecast provider, Weather Underground (WU), announced a change in policy last month. They were no longer going to allow free, limited access to their raw forecast data (API). Instead, they would begin charging hundreds per month even to those who contribute data like we do. Since this site generates no revenue, the new price tag is a nonstarter.
I’ve been exploring alternatives in hopes of continuing to offer dual forecasts. None of them have met my requirements of accuracy and affordability. Therefore, I’ve decided the National Weather Service (NWS) will be the sole forecast provider for marquetteweather.com.
In addition, the hourly forecast will not be replaced due to problems inherent in the forecasting process. Presently, the software-based weather models do not adequately represent the transient effects of the Great Lakes frequently leading to significant errors exceeding our forecast target of +/- 3 degrees. Plus, the forecasts don’t update often enough to keep pace with our weather. Routine changes in wind direction, cloud cover or precipitation can transform conditions in a matter of minutes — as most Marquetters intuitively understand. Continue reading “What Happened To The Forecast?”